Examining the huge risk John Calipari may be taking with the UK basketball roster

If nothing else, 2023-24 is shaping up as one of the most fascinating seasons in the long, storied history of the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball program.

In the immediate aftermath of UK’s season-ending loss to Kansas State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament round of 32, I wrote that it seemed “a heavy lift” to expect UK’s top-ranked incoming recruiting class — DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Justin Edwards, Robert Dillingham and Reed Sheppard — to be primarily responsible for restoring Kentucky basketball’s faded luster.

Yet now, after what has so far been a player-retention disaster for UK this offseason compounded by futile forays into the transfer portal, John Calipari appears to be doubling down on a freshman-centric approach to team construction.

Needing to build out a roster that, presently, has only seven recruited, scholarship players for next season, Kentucky’s best chances to add new talent appear to be three more incoming freshmen — 6-foot-7 wing Jordan Burks; 6-4 shooting guard Joey Hart; and 7-foot big man Somto Cyril.

The first two are three-star recruits in the 247Sports Composite rankings; the latter is a four-star.

If UK were to sign all three and add no one else to its roster for next season, Kentucky would enter 2023-24 with two sophomores and and eight true freshmen — and would not have one player on its team who has ever started a college basketball game.

Should that scenario play out, Calipari would not just be going against the prevailing wisdom on how to build a winning roster in men’s college hoops, the UK coach would be swimming against a tidal wave.

When analysts say the key to success in men’s college hoops in recent years has been “getting old,” they are not just riffing off the top of their heads. One need only examine the starting lineups of each Final Four team since 2016 to see what roster approach has been yielding March Madness magic:

2016: Of the 20 players who started in the Final Four, 15 were juniors or above.

NCAA champ Villanova started two seniors, two juniors and one freshman.

2017: Fourteen of the 20 Final Four starters were juniors or seniors.

NCAA champ North Carolina started two seniors and three juniors.

2018: Of the 20 Final Four starters, 14 were juniors or seniors.

National champion Villanova started three redshirt juniors, a junior and a redshirt freshman.

2019: Again, 14 of 20 Final Four starters were juniors or older.

NCAA Tournament winner Virginia started a redshirt junior, two juniors, a redshirt sophomore and a freshman.

2021: There were yet again 14 of 20 Final Four starters who were juniors or older.

NCAA champion Baylor started a redshirt senior, a senior and three juniors.

2022: Only 11 of 20 Final Four starters were juniors or older, although three others were third-year sophomores.

National champion Kansas started two seniors, a junior and two redshirt sophomores.

2023: For the second-straight season, 11 of the 20 Final Four starters were juniors or above. However, six redshirt sophomores also started, meaning 17 of the 20 Final Four starters had been in college at least three seasons.

NCAA champ Connecticut started a senior, two juniors, a sophomore and a redshirt freshman.

Of course, it is possible that UK will still find a way to add some veteran presence to its roster.

Super-senior-to-be shooting guard Antonio Reeves could still return to play for Kentucky next season. If he does, Reeves would be bucking the trend that has already seen eight other players on the 2022-23 Wildcats roster with remaining eligibility choose to depart either by transferring to another college or turning professional.

Other than ex-Creighton standout Arthur Kaluma, pickings are now slim in the transfer portal, but Kentucky might yet land a late graduate transfer.

Or Calipari could look beyond the boundaries of the U.S. for help. In the summer of 2015, UK added Canadian star guard Jamal Murray on June 24 and Australian big man Isaac Humphries on Aug. 20.

However, if Kentucky enters 2023-24 with as many as eight freshmen and two sophomores who have never started a college game as its nucleus, it will represent Calipari going against all recent convention in how to build a winner in men’s NCAA hoops.

Of course, the prior two Kentucky rosters had more veteran experience than any UK teams Calipari has ever coached.

The 2021-22 Cats entered their season with a whopping 367 career college starts on their roster — and lost to a No. 15 seed, Saint Peter’s, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Last season’s UK team had 262 career college starts entering the year — and lost 12 games and failed to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tourney.

Given those outcomes, Calipari may see little risk in “zigging” toward youth while the rest of college hoops is “zagging” with experience.

Kentucky men’s basketball hosting more potential freshmen for recruiting visits this week

How many ex-Kentucky basketball players are still in college? Enough to fill a whole team.