Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of PATRIZIA SE (ETR:PAT)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of PATRIZIA SE (ETR:PAT) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for PATRIZIA

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF (€, Millions)

€57.9m

€73.4m

€69.4m

€66.7m

€64.9m

€63.8m

€63.0m

€62.5m

€62.2m

€62.0m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x3

Analyst x3

Est @ -5.56%

Est @ -3.84%

Est @ -2.64%

Est @ -1.80%

Est @ -1.21%

Est @ -0.80%

Est @ -0.51%

Est @ -0.31%

Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7%

€54.3

€64.5

€57.1

€51.5

€47.0

€43.2

€40.0

€37.2

€34.7

€32.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €462m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €62m× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (6.7%– 0.2%) = €950m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €950m÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= €497m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €959m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €12.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at PATRIZIA as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.100. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for PATRIZIA

Strength

  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.

  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Real Estate market.

  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market.

Threat

  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the German market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For PATRIZIA, we've compiled three additional aspects you should explore:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with PATRIZIA , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

  2. Future Earnings: How does PAT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here