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‘Especially large group’ of A-level students won’t achieve top grades

A-levels results
A-levels results

Tens of thousands of A-Level students are expected to miss their university offers this year as 80,000 fewer top grades are awarded.

An unusually large group of students will be “painfully disappointed” as exam regulators start to tackle the runaway grade inflation seen during the pandemic, a study has found.

Exam boards have been told to set grade boundaries so that the grades will be about halfway between those of 2021 and 2019.

Prof Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment, said on that basis the proportion of A and A* grades, which reached a record 45 per cent last year when they were awarded based on teacher assessments, are set to fall to 35 per cent.

The decline would mean 80,000 fewer top grades than the 370,000 achieved last year.

Most competitive adnmission round in decades

Students who fail to make the grades needed to meet their conditional university offer will face the most competitive admissions round in decades to secure a place at an elite institution.

Demand for places has risen due to an increase in the number of 18-year-olds in the population at the same time as supply has been restricted by a bulge in intakes during the Covid years and increasing numbers of overseas students who pay higher fees.

Prof Smithers estimated that between 40,000 and 60,000 would miss out on the top grades required to get into their first-choice university.

“There will be lots of students and parents who have probably been offered this optimism from the teachers, looking forward to their son or daughter going to their first-choice university, but these grades based on exams will bring in a realism with them that for some is going to be painfully disappointing,” he said. “That happens every year but this year it’s going to be an especially large group.”

Number of advance offers lower than usual

University sources said that students who miss their required grades could have a strong chance of still being accepted by their first-choice university because many institutions have been cautious about handing out the usual number of offers in advance after grade inflation meant they were oversubscribed last year.

Clare Marchant, chief executive of the UCAS admissions service, told The Telegraph that there were 28,000 courses in clearing at present, including at around 26 of the most selective institutions. Around 100 places are available on highly competitive courses such as law and psychology, she said. However, she said those places were likely to go “quite quickly” on results day next Thursday.

Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, said that students are “acutely aware that the top degree courses are still the passports to higher earnings and more fruitful lives”, with the level of competition creating “the hardest admissions round in living memory for many applicants”.

The exams for students this year have been easier than those in 2019 in an attempt to compensate pupils for the disruption to learning caused by pandemic restrictions, with a restricted syllabus and advance notice on exam topics.

The number of top grades awarded is still expected to be 80,000 higher than in 2019, according to Prof Smithers. He said that the context of this year’s exams, such as advance notice on exam topics, will play to the strengths of girls, who overtook boys for the number of A*s awarded during the pandemic. “The gap between girls and boys will narrow, but girls will remain ahead,” he said.

There will be a legacy of more top grades in the performing arts and practical subjects, he added.

‘Decisions not made on grades alone’

Chris Hale, interim chief executive of Universities UK, said that the “vast majority” of applicants are “expected to get their first-choice course and plenty of high-quality courses expected to be available in clearing”.

He said that universities have “taken into account that this year’s applicants will probably have a lower proportion of top grades than the last two years with the return of exams following the pandemic’s disruption”. Decisions are “not made on grades alone”, with personal statements, references and individual circumstances “fully considered”, he added.

Prof James Tooley, vice chancellor of the University of Buckingham, said: “There are going to be students who don’t get their first choice of university. I really feel for these students. However non-Russell group universities such as Buckingham have a lot to offer … It’s definitely worth looking widely at the other alternatives if you don’t get your first choice.”

A Department for Education spokesman said: “Last year did not see a high number of deferrals compared to previous years and UK students take up the vast majority of places on university undergraduate courses compared to international students, so it is not right to suggest that these factors have caused a squeeze on places.

“Competition for places at the most selective universities has always been high and this year is no different – but there will always be lots of options for students either at another university, through clearing or high-quality vocational options that are just as prestigious and rewarding as academic routes.”