Earnings Update: Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Mirum Pharmaceuticals outperformed on both revenues and the expected loss per share, with revenues of US$17m beating estimates by 13%. Statutory losses were US$0.84, 27% smaller thanthe analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Mirum Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, Mirum Pharmaceuticals' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$69.6m in 2022. This would be a substantial 81% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.32 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$73.8m and losses of US$4.37 per share in 2022.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$58.00, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast sales next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mirum Pharmaceuticals at US$77.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$31.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 226% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 138% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 14% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Mirum Pharmaceuticals to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Mirum Pharmaceuticals going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mirum Pharmaceuticals you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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