Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa’s accuracy has lived up to billing through first 16 starts

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has taken a winding path to 16 starts in the NFL.

He didn’t start the first six games of his rookie season as he continued to recover from his serious hip injury at Alabama. He took over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 9 of the 2020 season but was benched midgame twice and missed another because of a thumb injury.

His second season was quickly derailed as he missed four games because of broken ribs and a fractured middle finger on his left hand, but he has overcome the setback, starting the past three games for the Dolphins, who have won four in a row.

At last, Sunday’s win against the Carolina Panthers marked Tagovailoa’s 16th NFL start.

There haven’t been many constants during the 16-month journey. Tagovailoa has had different offensive coordinators, a bevy of changes along the offensive line and myriad pass-catchers in and out of the lineup.

One thing, however, has been consistent: Taovailoa’s accuracy. In the win against the Panthers, Tagovailoa completed 27 of his 31 attempts, joining the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott as the only quarterbacks under the age of 24 with a completion percentage of 85 or higher in a single game.

“Accuracy is always good,” coach Brian Flores said Wednesday. “If we can throw it accurately, catch the ball — those are normally positive plays. Positive plays keep you on schedule, and if you’re on schedule, then normally good things happen. When you’re off schedule or behind in the sticks, it’s harder to pick up the yardage with the amount of downs that we have. I think accuracy is very important. He’s been accurate. We’ve asked him to be accurate. He’s practiced that way in practice and it’s showing up in games.”

Accuracy was always the most well-developed trait for Tagovailoa as he entered the NFL and its a skill set Flores said is innate but can also “certainly be learned, developed and improved.” Tagovailoa has a career completion rate of 67 percent and his 70.5 percent completion rate this season ranks second only to the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray.

In Sunday’s performance, Tagovailoa became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to record a completion rate of at least 80 in consecutive games with a minimum of 30 pass attempts, joining Drew Brees (2018), Peyton Manning (2013) and Murray (2021).

Just as important as accuracy is ball placement and allowing opportunities for receivers to rack up yards after the catch. According to Pro Football Reference, Tagovailoa’s percentage of “poor throws” has decreased from 18.8 percent as a rookie to 14.8 percent in 2021 and his percentage of on-target throws has increased from 74.1 percent to 81.7 percent. His poor throw percentage ranks ninth lowest of all qualified passers, while his on-target percentage only trails Murray and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow.

“If it’s man [coverage], you never want to put it behind them,” Tagovailoa said. “You never want to put it on them. You always want to lead them. In zone, you’re really just trying to beat the defensive guys in spots when you’re throwing it. A lot of it has to do with timing. Really, the receivers in zone and in man, I feel like they’re our eyes as quarterbacks because they’re running to a spot where they want us to throw the ball. It gets hard when you’re looking in the front and trying to see who is in front of them and then try to look back at them and then try to make the throw. Sometimes you just never have enough time to do that, so you’re just trusting them.”

Tagovailoa credited the work he did with his father when he was younger for establishing his accuracy as a passer.

“Working out with my dad, that was imperative,” Tagovailoa said. “Just everything I had to do had to be to his liking. If the ball placement wasn’t where it should have been, then we do it again and we do it until we get it right. That goes with footwork and all of that.”

Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle said his 9-yard touchdown catch against the Panthers was “a timing route” that Tagovailoa delivered where “only I could get it” in the middle of zone coverage.

“He hits you when you’re in stride so your run-after-catch ability is on display,” said Waddle, who recorded a 57-yard catch-and-run against the Panthers. “I think where he puts the ball allows you to make a move and things like that. His ball placement is very key.”

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Tagovailoa completed all 19 of his quick passes, attempts thrown in less than 2.5 seconds. It was the most completions without an incompletion on quick passes since NFL Next Gen Stats began tracking it in 2016. As a result, Tagovailoa only averaged 3.7 air yards per attempt, which ranked second-to-last among all passers last week.

The low average depth of target this season has been a criticism of the Dolphins offense and Tagovailoa, whose 6.5 averaged air yards intended this season ranks third fewest of 37 quarterbacks with at least 98 attempts.

It’s a byproduct of multiple things: an offensive line that has struggled to sustain blocks in pass protection and an RPO-heavy offense that naturally emphasizes shorter, quicker passes.

The Dolphins offense has been able to connect on more explosive pass plays in recent weeks, from Tagovailoa’s career-long, 62-yard touchdown pass two weeks ago to Waddle’s 57-yarder last Sunday, and the return of wide receiver DeVante Parker to practice could add reinforcements to a unit beginning to catch its stride.

“He’s going to throw a very catchable ball,” tight end Mike Gesicki said of Tagovailoa. “He’s going to make the job easy on his receivers. I love playing with him and a lot of guys are making plays because of where he puts the ball.”