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How does Kansas limit turnovers vs. Iowa State’s defense? Opponent breakdown

After a big win over in-state rival K-State on Tuesday, the Kansas men’s basketball team heads to Ames, Iowa on Saturday to face off against conference rival Iowa State.

The two teams last met in January, with the Jayhawks winning 62-60 over the Cyclones in Allen Fieldhouse. KU has won seven straight over Iowa State.

The Cyclones are coming off an 80-77 overtime loss to Texas Tech on Tuesday. In that game, Iowa State blew a 23-point lead.

Iowa State has an intense defense that forces many turnovers, plus an athletic guard that excels at finishing at the rim.

Below is a scouting report and prediction for the game.

Saturday’s game: No. 8 Kansas vs. No. 13 Iowa State

When/where: 11 a.m., Hilton Coliseum

TV/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 15-6, 6-3 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 19

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Iowa State Team Strengths

  • Elite defense: Iowa State ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.1). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent.

  • Glass cleaners: The Cyclones rank 34th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (34.7)

  • Mistake forcers: Iowa State ranks first in opposing turnover percentage (26.8) and 10th in turnovers per game (17.9)

Iowa State Team Weaknesses

  • Struggles at the line: Iowa State has issues making free throws. The Cyclones rank 321st in free-throw percentage (66.3).

  • Play inside the arc: The Cyclones don’t take a lot of threes. They rank 295th in three-point attempt percentage (32.9)

  • Small rotations: Iowa State ranks 208th in bench minutes percentage (30.2).

Iowa State Name to Know

6-foot-4 Senior guard Gabe Kalscheur (No. 22)

+ Excellent finisher around the rim (76.7%)

+ Solid shooter (34.7% FG from three)

+ Quick hands (1.6 steals per game)

- Not much of a passer (1.7 assists per game)

Tale of the Tape

Iowa State loves second-chance opportunities. Here, a Cyclones player missed a layup and forward Tre King charged to the rim. The Texas Tech player didn’t box out and King corralled the rebound and dunked the ball. One KU focus should be limiting the Cyclones on the glass by boxing out and communicating when Iowa State players are around the paint.

Iowa State is one of the best in turning defense into offense. Here, forward Hason Ward slithered between two K-State players and blew up the pass. Then, after Ward collected the ball, he converted the fastbreak dunk. Kansas can’t be careless with the ball; it will lead to fastbreak opportunities for the Cyclones and can shift momentum in the game. If KU does turn the ball over, the Jayhawks need to limit easy points in the paint and send a team that struggles with free throws to the line.

Game Prediction

KU travels to Ames after a big win over in-state rival K-State on Tuesday.

The Wildcats have a good defense, but the Cyclones’ speed and pressure put their defense on another level.

When the two teams met earlier this year, Iowa State caused 16 KU turnovers. In that game, Iowa State cut off passing lanes, put pressure on ball handlers and swiped at balls when Kansas players drove.

The way for the Jayhawks to counter the high-pressure defense is to put the Cyclones in foul trouble. Iowa State has a high tendency to foul, ranking 331st in opponent free-throw attempt percentage (40).

On the other side of the court, KU’s biggest worry should be keeping the Cyclones off the boards. Kansas’ defense matches up well otherwise, but limiting offensive rebounds by Iowa State prevents the Cyclones from second-chance points, which can help shift the game’s momentum.

The Cyclones are reeling (they’ve lost four of six) while KU seems to have figured out its issue — plus, the Jayhawks have won seven straight against Iowa State. Although the environment in Ames is one of the toughest in the Big 12, I like Kansas in this one.

Kansas 73, Iowa State 67

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-1.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 9-5

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 8-6

KU Player to watch: Gradey Dick

Freshman guard Gradey Dick has been in a little bit of a shooting slump lately. Dick has shot 6-for-19 (31.6%) from the floor in his last two games. The last time Dick faced the Cyclones, he scored 21 points while shooting 7-for-13 overall.

Iowa State allows its opponents to shoot threes at a very high rate, ranking 354th in the country in opposing team three-point attempt percentage (45.4). So, Dick should have a great chance to bounce back on the offensive end. The Cyclones also tend to be a bit over-aggressive on defense, so Dick can use that to his advantage by using his pump fake and giving himself space to get his shot off.

On the defensive end, Dick’s length can bother the Cyclones’ guards and allow him to get into passing lanes. Iowa State loves to hold on to the ball, ranking 296th in average possession length (18.6 seconds). That’ll allow Dick to jump into passing lanes and wreak havoc, something he’s done a great job of lately (nine steals in the last five games).

If Dick can bounce back on the offensive end and rack up steals on the other end, the Jayhawks should walk out of Ames as the victors.