Did U-Haul run out of trucks as Californians fled the state?

Just look at the shortage of U-Haul trucks in California, Kevin Kiley said as evidence that people are eager to leave the state.

Kiley, a Republican vying with Democrat Kermit Jones for the Third District congressional seat, was speaking to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas Saturday. In a straw poll of attendees, 99% said they approved of the job Donald Trump did as president.

Kiley, an assemblyman from Rocklin, painted a grim picture of a California where thousands are moving out, fed up with crime, homelessness, home prices and more.

Claim: “For the first time in history more people are moving out of our state than moving in. U-Haul has literally run out of trucks.”

Rating: Largely true

Details: U-Haul did run out of trucks in California last year.

“We sustained a shortage of available one-way trucks and trailers for outbound moves at times during 2020 and 2021 in California and other West Coast locations due to a substantially greater outflow vs. inflow of equipment,” said U-Haul spokesman Jeff Lockridge.

He said the trend was most noticeable in regions such as the Bay Area, “where demand for outbound trucks remained consistently high.”

Because demand for outbound moves from California was so high in 2020, it left the U-Haul teams in the state with limited one-way inventories at the start of 2021.

So far in 2022, Lockridge said, the company has been able to meet customer demand.

California has been losing population, though it remains by far the nation’s most populous state with 39.2 million people as of July 2021, down about 300,000 from April, 2020.

Texas had 29.5 million people last year, up about 382,000 from April, 2020.

California is losing a congressional seat next year for the first time in its history. Texas is adding two seats.

“Californians are leaving for other states at some of the highest rates of the last 30 years, and Texas is one of the most popular destinations.” said Eric McGhee, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.

Why a California exodus?

The chief reason for the migration involves home prices, according to William Fulton, former director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University in Houston.

“Individuals move to Texas because they can get more house for their money,” he said.

The Public Policy Institute of California saw the same trend.

“A record-high 46% of Californians say the cost of their housing makes them and their family seriously consider moving out of the part of California where they currently live, with most saying they would move outside the state,” the institute said as it analyzed a March poll of state residents.

Zillow’s Home Value Index, which measures the value of homes, found that in Sacramento, the typical value of a home was $521,288 in June. In Fresno, the figure was $377,705 and in Modesto, $456,212.

All those numbers were higher than major Texas cities. Dallas’ typical home value was $336,596. In Fort Worth, it was $333,190. The average price of homes for sale in Houston is $270,365

Whether this California to Texas migration is an ongoing trend, though, is questionable.

“It’s entirely possible that the pandemic has created a whole new pattern we’ve not seen before — a permanent increase in the flow of Californians to Texas. The changes in quality of life in the two states may have tipped the balance to Texas at last,” a 2021 Kinder analysis said.

But, it added, “it’s more likely that when California home prices come back down to earth, so too will migration to Texas.”

One exception to the exodus: The Sacramento-Roseville area. U-Haul found the area, with its more affordable housing and government employment, ranked 8th among all “growth cities” in the nation.