It's normal to be annoyed when stock you own has a declining share price. But sometimes a share price fall can have more to do with market conditions than the performance of the specific business. So while the Prospect Resources Limited (ASX:PSC) share price is down 83% in the last year, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was 243%. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 6.0%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 25% in three years. In the last ninety days we've seen the share price slide 92%. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
With the stock having lost 14% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Because Prospect Resources made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last twelve months, Prospect Resources increased its revenue by 1,255%. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price down 83% over twelve months. Something weird is definitely impacting the stock price; we'd venture the company has destroyed value somehow. We'd recommend taking a very close look at the stock (and any available forecasts), before considering a purchase, because the share price is not correlated with the revenue growth, that's for sure. Of course, investors do over-react when they are stressed out, so the sell-off could be unjustifiably severe.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for Prospect Resources in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Prospect Resources' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. We note that Prospect Resources' TSR, at 243% is higher than its share price return of -83%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Prospect Resources shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 243% over one year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 41% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Prospect Resources better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Prospect Resources (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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