Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Forrester Research, Inc. (NASDAQ:FORR)?

·4 min read

It is hard to get excited after looking at Forrester Research's (NASDAQ:FORR) recent performance, when its stock has declined 18% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Forrester Research's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Forrester Research

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Forrester Research is:

12% = US$25m ÷ US$202m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.12 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Forrester Research's Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

To begin with, Forrester Research seems to have a respectable ROE. Yet, the fact that the company's ROE is lower than the industry average of 17% does temper our expectations. Further, Forrester Research's five year net income growth of 3.7% is on the lower side. Not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. Hence there might be some other aspects that are keeping growth in earnings low. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

As a next step, we compared Forrester Research's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 16% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is FORR worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether FORR is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Forrester Research Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Forrester Research doesn't pay any dividend, which means that it is retaining all of its earnings. This doesn't explain the low earnings growth number that we discussed above. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Forrester Research certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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