COVID updates: Cases declining in California; has omicron surge peaked in Sacramento?

California has confirmed more than 2 million COVID-19 cases in the past month amid the omicron wave, but recent numbers continue to suggest the surge is subsiding from its peak.

The state’s daily case rate fell for a fourth straight day, reported Thursday by the California Department of Public Health at 257 per 100,000 residents.

That’s down 10% from an all-time high of 285 per 100,000 reported four days earlier, though it remains well above the 16 per 100,000 reported in mid-December before omicron became the dominant variant.

Statewide test positivity is also dropping, from a peak of 23.1% earlier this month to 20.7% as of Thursday.

By episode date, California’s peak appears to have come the week ending Jan. 8. In a separate chart updated weekly, CDPH reported that the daily case rate that week was 778 per 100,000 among unvaccinated residents — four times higher than the rate of 193 per 100,000 among the fully vaccinated.

That works out to about one in every 18 unvaccinated Californians testing positive for COVID-19 the week of Jan. 2 to Jan. 8, not including unreported at-home test results. For vaccinated Californians, it was about one in 74.

Hospitalizations continue to increase, with CDPH reporting 15,393 patients in hospital beds with confirmed virus cases including 2,467 in intensive care units. Hospitalizations are up 25% and ICU cases up 30% in the past week, state data show.

CDPH data show the hospitalization rate as of early January was six times higher in unvaccinated residents than the fully vaccinated.

California as of Thursday’s update stood less than 3,000 shy of 7 million lab-confirmed cases for the pandemic, not including unreported at-home results. The state reached 5 million confirmed infections on Christmas.

More than 77,500 Californians have died of COVID-19.

Has the omicron surge peaked in Sacramento?

Sacramento County’s daily case rate for COVID-19 has fallen from an all-time high of 237 per 100,000 to 200 per 100,000 in the past six days, according to the local health office’s data dashboard.

“We are seeing some indications of a plateau,” county health officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye said on a Thursday call with reporters.

Kasirye said that it may take a few more days of data to be confident the surge has peaked.

However, county epidemiology program manager Jamie White also said that a Stanford-based research group that tracks virus concentrations at California wastewater plants recently reported that virus levels appear to be declining at plants in Sacramento and in the Bay Area.

“Since these changes have occurred over several days, it looks like there is a true decrease in SARS-CoV-2 circulation and not a random fluctuation,” White said.

White said that while omicron is the dominant strain in California, there are still cases of the delta variant being reported in Sacramento County.

“Delta has not gone away,” White said. “There’s no guarantee that if someone gets a COVID infection today that it’s going to be omicron.”

The delta variant is associated with a higher likelihood of severe illness than omicron.

Kasirye said emergency room visits appear to be declining slightly, and that this may be in part due to people heeding warnings from health officials and hospital networks to reserve emergency rooms and 911 calls for true emergencies.

However, local hospitals still face heavy burdens. CDPH data show Sacramento County set another all-time record Wednesday with 615 COVID-positive patients, which is 21% of all licensed hospital beds in the county. The ICU total has increased to 96 from 80 in the past week.

UC Davis Medical Center is seeing more COVID-19 patients than ever before, officials said this week, including a sharp rise in pediatric cases. Kaiser Permanente’s South Sacramento medical center recently added 56 surge beds, which will be staffed by the state and used for non-COVID patients.

The surge is also affecting first responders and emergency services.

“Yesterday at 4:30pm, 18 ambulances were parked at UC Davis with patients waiting on the hospital wall for a bed,” the Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District tweeted Thursday. “This creates a major problem for the pre-hospital 911 system.”

Outbreak intensifies at Elk Grove jail

Kasirye on Thursday’s call said the number of active COVID-19 cases among inmates at the Main Jail downtown has dropped to 47, from 76 last week.

But at the Rio Cosumnes Correctional Center in Elk Grove, cases have spiked to 123 from 49 last week.

Kasirye said the local health office continues to meet with correctional health officials at least once a week to provide consultation and assist with testing.

The Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office last week announced it would release more than 200 inmates early across the two facilities due to the latest coronavirus outbreak.

Caseloads slightly improving, still high at Sacramento schools

While some Sacramento-area schools are seeing improvements in COVID-19 cases, most are still reporting large numbers of infections.

In San Juan Unified, more than 350 cases were added to the district total on Wednesday, according to a Thursday morning update. However, the number of student exposures had declined significantly since last week.

The Sacramento City Unified School District had 723 active cases as of Thursday morning.

Twin Rivers Unified has 1,091 “recent” cases, defined as infections reported within 14 days, a slight increase over last week. The number of students recently infected, however, has dropped.

And the Folsom Cordova Unified School District reported 576 active cases on Wednesday, including 506 students. That’s a significant decrease over the previous Wednesday, when the district had 772 total active cases among staff and students. The number of students and staff in quarantine dropped by about one-third in the last week.

On Thursday’s call, Nick Mori with the local health office said there are “no set thresholds for school closures,” and that while there have been some classroom closures, there have not been any full campus shutdowns in Sacramento County.

Mori said the high community case rates amid the omicron surge make it difficult to determine whether school-age children are contracting COVID-19 at school or elsewhere in the community.

California lawmakers form COVID vaccine work group

A group of eight Democratic lawmakers on Wednesday announced the formation of a Vaccine Work Group, which plans to develop policies to boost California vaccination rates and combat misinformation.

“We would like to return to our pre-pandemic lives as soon as possible, and that will require immunization for everyone,” Sen. Josh Newman said in a statement.

The group announced Wednesday is a partnership among Assemblywoman Buffy Wicks, D-Oakland, Sen. Richard Pan, D-Sacramento, Assemblywoman Akilah Weber, D-San Diego, Assemblyman Evan Low, D-Silicon Valley, Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, and Newman, D-Fullerton.

The work group has been reviewing potential legislation related to vaccines, including access to shots and rules for schools and workplaces.

Latest Sacramento-area numbers

Sacramento County has recorded 233,945 total lab-confirmed cases and 2,607 deaths from COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, according to local health officials.

The county as of Thursday reported the daily case rate at 200 per 100,000 residents, declining about 16% from an all-time high of 237 per 100,000 recorded six days earlier, according to the local health office.

According to CDPH, Sacramento County’s latest test positivity rate is 25.4%.

County hospitals were treating 615 patients with confirmed COVID-19 as of Wednesday, setting an all-time record for a fifth straight day, according to CDPH. The ICU total has increased to 96 from 80 in the past week.

Placer County has tallied 51,622 cases and 510 virus deaths to date, last updated Wednesday.

Local health officials last reported the daily case rate at 165 per 100,000 for the week ending Jan. 10.

Placer’s positivity rate is 26.3%, CDPH reported Thursday.

Placer County hospitals had 205 COVID-positive patients Wednesday, down from 211 one week earlier. The ICU tally increased to 42 from 34.

Yolo County has confirmed 28,758 infections and 269 deaths from COVID-19, last updated Wednesday.

The county’s latest reported case rate is 110 per 100,000, for the week ending Jan. 14.

CDPH reports Yolo County’s positivity rate at 7.2%, second-lowest among all of the state’s 58 counties.

Yolo County hospitals were treating 26 patients with COVID-19 on Wednesday, up from 16 one week earlier. The ICU total increased to seven from three.

El Dorado County has reported 22,302 cumulative cases and 180 deaths from COVID-19, last updated Wednesday.

El Dorado’s latest reported case rate, for the week ending Jan. 12, was 150 per 100,000.

The county had a positivity rate of 25%, CDPH reported Thursday.

Hospitals in El Dorado County had 19 COVID-positive patients Wednesday, up from 14 a week earlier. Six patients were in ICUs, up from one.

Sutter County has recorded 18,353 cases and 206 deaths, and Yuba County has recorded 14,242 cases with 91 deaths, according to a Wednesday update from the bi-county health office.

CDPH reported Yuba County at 187 daily cases per 100,000 and Sutter County at 170 per 100,000 as of Thursday.

Positivity was 35.3% in Sutter and 35.2% in Yuba, ranking third- and fourth-highest respectively among California’s 58 counties,.

The lone hospital serving Yuba and Sutter counties, Adventist Health and Rideout in Marysville, as of Wednesday had 59 patients with confirmed COVID-19, up from 40 one week earlier. Eight were in the ICU, up from six.

The Bee’s Sophia Bollag, Lara Korte and Ryan Lillis contributed to this story.