Around 40 per cent of India’s adult population likely to be fully vaccinated by November, largely through indegineous vaccine production, a recent report by YES Securities said. “By January 2022, another 20 per cent is likely to be vaccinated, thereby covering 60 per cent of the adult population,” it further added. YES Securities further stated that around 80% of the adult population will be inoculated by the end of this fiscal. “It is pertinent to note that the vaccination threshold for herd immunity as defined by one of WHO’s chief scientists, is 60‐70 per cent of the total population,” the analysts mentioned.
However, India’s teething troubles of COVID-19 vaccination coverage are likely to persist over the next month, owing to raw material scarcity for domestic manufacture, YES Securities added. “Shortage if severe, can dent vaccination drive with 7.5 crore of population to be prioritized for second dose (who will be due after stipulated 7 weeks of first dose), putting the first dose to halt and derailing the future vaccination run‐rate,” it further noted.
“Vaccine production should ramp up, June onwards, given that manufacturers are boosting capacities and the US government is likely to ease export restrictions on vaccines and raw materials following the vaccination of significant native populace, over the next 45 days,” it added. Explaining it further, the analysts said, “We expect more than 80% of US adult population to be fully vaccinated in next 45 days, implying that their requirement of vaccine raw materials will a reduce sharply and thereby, supply should ease”
In the domestic market, the Rs 30 billion grant will help Serum Institute of India in ramping up capacity, analysts said adding that the pharma giant “has guided for capacity of 100 million doses till July. We have assumed a phased increase.”
On Bharat Biotech ramping up annual capacity to 700 million doses, YES Securities said, “Government grant of Rs 650 million grant and usage of repurposed facility in Bangalore will aid in scaling up output gradually. We have assumed a phased increase.”
India will have enough doses to inoculate all citizens by December, the head of the national task force on COVID-19 vaccines said last week. “Overall, 216 crore doses of vaccines will be manufactured in India between August and December, for India and for Indians. There should be no doubt that vaccines will be available for all as we move forward,” Dr Vinod Kumar Paul said during daily press briefing.
Post 70 per cent inoculation of first dose, 60 per cent of the vaccine supply to be channelized for the second dosage, YES Securities added.
On market outlook, YES Securities said, “The peak of the case curve for the ongoing 2nd wave is difficult to predict and may keep markets on tenterhooks in the near term. It is possible for the Nifty to fall to 13,600-13,800, on fears of impact on economic recovery, damage to small businesses and postponement of consumption. We’ve predicted a 1 per cent impact on GDP in FY22 in our earlier note. However, indices should swiftly recover back as well, once the case curve peaks.”