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What could help Chargers break Kansas City Chiefs’ grip on AFC West? The NFL schedule

The Kansas City Chiefs set an AFC West record last season by winning a sixth straight division title, but there could be a significant hurdle to getting No. 7.

The NFL schedule.

Two different media outlets explained how the 2022 NFL schedule could impact the AFC West race.

NBC Sports’ Peter King released an early power rankings on Monday, and he has the Chiefs at No. 3. The Los Angeles Chargers are ranked second, and King mentioned some of LA’s opponents as the Chargers will be playing a third-place schedule.

“One other little advantage for the Chargers: They’ve got Jacksonville, Houston, Seattle and Atlanta in games 3-4-7-8,” King wrote. “That should mean they’ll be near the top of the best division in football come Thanksgiving.”

The Chiefs’ schedule has been rated as the most difficult (tied with the Rams) based on projections of each opponent’s win-loss record.

Part of that is because all three AFC West foes made significant offseason additions. And the Chiefs will open the season with eight straight games against teams that had a winning record a year earlier, something that has never happened in NFL history.

Seth Welder of ESPN analytics wrote about the network’s Football Power Index (FPI) and the upcoming season. The story included a look at the AFC West.

Welder noted the Chiefs are considered the AFC West’s strongest team.

“But here’s the interesting part: Even though it believes they are the division’s best team, ESPN’s FPI actually doesn’t favor the Chiefs to win the AFC West,” Welder wrote. “The Chargers and Broncos are both slightly more likely to win the division than the Chiefs — and the Chargers have a better chance to earn the conference’s No. 1 seed.

“Why? It mostly comes down to schedule. In terms of average FPI rating of its opponents, no team has a rougher 17-game slate in front of it than Kansas City. The Chiefs’ three opponents that their division-mates don’t face are brutal matchups: Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Cincinnati. Consider that the Chargers’ opponents instead include the Falcons, Dolphins and Browns, while the Broncos get the Panthers, Jets and Ravens. That’s a pretty big difference and a huge equalizer, even though the model believes Kansas City is the best team of the trio.”

Nothing will be decided until the games are played, but if analytics and a long-time NFL reporter are right, schedules could be hinder the Chiefs’ chances of ruling the AFC West.