Compass Group (LON:CPG) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Although, when we looked at Compass Group (LON:CPG), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Compass Group, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.0012 = UK£11m ÷ (UK£14b - UK£4.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2021).

Thus, Compass Group has an ROCE of 0.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 15%.

Check out our latest analysis for Compass Group

In the above chart we have measured Compass Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

How Are Returns Trending?

The trend of ROCE doesn't look fantastic because it's fallen from 24% five years ago, while the business's capital employed increased by 75%. Usually this isn't ideal, but given Compass Group conducted a capital raising before their most recent earnings announcement, that would've likely contributed, at least partially, to the increased capital employed figure. Compass Group probably hasn't received a full year of earnings yet from the new funds it raised, so these figures should be taken with a grain of salt.

On a related note, Compass Group has decreased its current liabilities to 33% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.

The Bottom Line On Compass Group's ROCE

We're a bit apprehensive about Compass Group because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Investors must expect better things on the horizon though because the stock has risen 9.2% in the last five years. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

Compass Group does have some risks though, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Compass Group that you might be interested in.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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