A closer look at where the Heat’s roster stands: ‘I’m looking forward to running it back’

After the Miami Heat’s season came to a sudden end just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals, the front office had a choice to make: Run it back after coming so close to a championship or make big changes to reinvigorate the team.

It looks like the organization’s top decision makers have decided on running it back ... for now. All the while, the Heat has made it a priority to protect its top assets and maintain salary cap flexibility to put itself in position to be an active participant in the trade market if a superstar becomes available.

So far in free agency, the Heat has re-signed three players in center Dewayne Dedmon, forward Caleb Martin and guard Victor Oladipo. Miami has yet to make any outside free agent additions.

In fact, the only player currently on the Heat’s 15-man roster for this upcoming season who wasn’t on this year’s season-ending roster is rookie forward Nikola Jovic, who was selected by Miami with the 27th overall pick in this year’s draft. And the only player currently not on the Heat’s 15-man roster for this upcoming season who was on this year’s season-ending roster is forward P.J. Tucker, who left to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers in free agency.

“I’m looking forward to running it back,” Oladipo said during a Zoom call with reporters on Thursday morning after signing his new contract with the Heat. “I felt like we had a very good and strong opportunity to make it to the Finals last year, and that’s the goal this year, is to make it there and be successful. So I’m glad I get to be a part of that journey and that process of trying to get there.”

One week into free agency, the Heat entered Thursday with nearly a full roster for next season with 13 players signed to standard contracts: Jimmy Butler ($37.7 million), Bam Adebayo ($30.4 million), Kyle Lowry ($28.3 million), Duncan Robinson ($16.9 million), Oladipo ($8.6 million), Martin ($6.5 million), Tyler Herro ($5.7 million), Dedmon ($4.7 million), Jovic ($2.2 million), Max Strus ($1.8 million), Gabe Vincent ($1.8 million), Omer Yurtseven ($1.8 million) and Haywood Highsmith (partially guaranteed $1.8 million).

Guards Javonte Smart and Mychal Mulder, who are both participating in summer league, currently hold the Heat’s two two-way contracts. Two-way deals don’t count against the salary cap.

The Heat has about $148.2 million committed to salaries for next season with the NBA setting the 2022-23 salary cap at $123.7 million and luxury-tax threshold at $150.3 million.

With about $2.1 million separating the Heat from entering the luxury tax, it has just enough room to sign a 14th player to a minimum contract without becoming a tax team.

The Heat created that space under the luxury tax by renegotiating with Oladipo to make a change to the one-year, $11 million contract he agreed to on the first day of free agency last week. The Heat and Oladipo came together Wednesday to restructure the terms to a two-year deal worth in the range of $18 million, according to a league source, that includes a smaller salary in the first season worth about $8.6 million and a player option in the second season.

“It was just the best deal for me, I feel like,” Oladipo said. “It kind of seemed like a lot of people were kind of shying away from me [because of my injury history]. So, I think coming back here and playing with the Heat was the best option for me.”

Why would the Heat do this? Decreasing Oladipo’s cap hit by about $2.4 million for this upcoming season gives the team just enough space to use a minimum contract on a 14th player while remaining under the tax to again push back the clock on the looming punitive repeater tax (when a team is over the tax at least three times during a four-year period). It also provides additional wiggle room against a potential hard cap that would be triggered by spending more mid-level exception money, using the $4.1 biannual exception or a sign-and-trade acquisition.

Why would Oladipo do this? While accepting a smaller salary in the first season, this new contract offers a player who has been through two knee surgeries in the last four years a bit more long-term security with a player option expected to be worth around $9.4 million in the second year. If Oladipo remains healthy and outperforms the deal this upcoming season, he can opt out and sign a more lucrative contract in free agency next offseason.

“I truly believe that I can be better than I was,” said Oladipo, who was voted to the All-Star Game, NBA All-Defensive First Team and All-NBA Third Team in 2017-18 as a member of the Indiana Pacers before his two knee surgeries. “That may sound crazy to everyone, but I rather have that mentality and I can live with the results after that because I’m going to push myself to be that.

“I think the biggest goal for me is just to show everyone that I’m healthy and I can play a whole year and also to show everyone that I’m one of the best players in this league. So everything else will take care of itself and that’s what I’m focused on.”

With just enough room to sign a 14th player to a minimum contract, it could be as simple as the Heat bringing back veteran forward and team captain Udonis Haslem for a 20th NBA season to fill that opening. If Haslem decides to continue his playing career, his cap hit at the veteran minimum would be $1.8 million and push Miami less than $1 million away from entering the tax.

This is why the Heat is expected to begin this upcoming season with just 14 players on standard contracts — not counting the two players on two-way deals — barring a trade.

Entering the season with 14 players is one shy of the NBA regular-season maximum of 15 players but still acceptable under NBA roster rules. Miami has gone with 14 players in previous seasons when up against the luxury tax or hard cap.

Haslem and forward Markieff Morris are the only two players form the Heat’s season-ending roster who remain available in free agency.

Through it all, though, the Heat has yet to sacrifice any of its top trade chips.

Miami is still currently eligible to include two unprotected first-round picks in 2023 and 2028 or 2029 in a deal, and could open a third unprotected first-round pick to throw into a trade if it amends the lottery protections on the 2025 first-round selection it owes the Oklahoma City Thunder.

And after bringing back Dedmon on a 2022-23 salary of $4.7 million, Martin on a 2022-23 salary of $6.5 million and Oladipo on a 2022-23 salary of $8.6 million, the Heat added some “mid-range salaries” that it could throw in trades to help facilitate deals for salary-matching purposes.

It should be noted, though, that Dedmon and Oladipo aren’t eligible to be traded until Jan. 15 and Oladipo also can’t be traded without his consent this season. Martin becomes eligible to be traded on Dec. 15.

So as it looks like the Kevin Durant sweepstakes could drag on for weeks with teams struggling to meet the Brooklyn Nets’ incredibly high asking price for the superstar and uncertainty still surrounding Donovan Mitchell’s situation with the Utah Jazz, the Heat is moving forward with a roster that looks very much like last season’s ... for now.