A closer look at how the Chiefs’ playoff chances have been resurrected in five weeks

A 27-3 loss to Tennessee on Oct. 24 not only left the Chiefs with a 3-4 record, it left many pundits wondering about their playoff chances.

“The Chiefs,” wrote Dan Hanzus of NFL.com, “have reached a crisis point.”

The Washington Post’s Mark Maske ranked the Chiefs as the 19th best team in the NFL and wrote: “This isn’t a great team playing poorly. It’s simply not a very good team at the moment.”

“Week 7 was a straight-up horror movie for the Chiefs,” wrote The Athletic’s Lindsay Jones and Zac Jackson.

The latter was in reference to the calendar. The Chiefs’ blowout loss at the hands of the Titans came days before Halloween.

But just as Christmas decorations have replaced pumpkins outside of homes, there has been a big change in the Chiefs playoff outlook just five weeks later.

The Chiefs won all four of their games in November and ascended from last place in the AFC West to first.

Here is a look at what playoff models showed when the Chiefs had a 3-4 record in late October and what they’re saying now that KC’s record is 7-4.

FiveThirtyEight.com

Then: 43% chance of making playoffs, 15% of winning West.

Now: 85% of being in postseason; 64% of being West champs.

Worth noting: The Chiefs also have a 9% shot of winning the Super Bowl, the second-best chance in the AFC behind New England.

New York Times

Then: 34% chance of making playoffs; 12% of winning West.

Now: 84% of being in postseason; 62% of being West champs.

Worth noting: The Chiefs have a 10% chance of being the No. 1 seed and have a 10% shot at winning the Super Bowl. The latter is tied with Patriots for best chance of any AFC team.

PlayoffStatus.com

Then: 25% chance of making playoffs, 11% of winning West.

Now: 76% shot at being in postseason; 50% shot of winning division.

Worth noting: This site shows the Chiefs have a 13% chance of making Super Bowl LVI and a 7% shot at winning it. The only AFC team with a better shot is the Ravens.

Other models

Currently, Football Outsiders gives the Chiefs an 83% chance of being in the playoffs, while CBS Sports shows the Chiefs with a 58% shot of winning the AFC West.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Chiefs an 80.2% chance of being in the playoff field, a 55.8% chance of being division champs, a 10.5% shot of advancing to Super Bowl LVI and a 4.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl.