Chiefs-Bengals prediction: How Cincinnati — in one way — has closed the gap on KC

The Details

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati

TV: CBS (Ch. 5) in Kansas City

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

Something to consider before we dive further into this Chiefs-Bengals matchup: Last year, in early January, the Chiefs were 3 1/2-point favorites in their game at Cincinnati. This year — same teams, same setting — KC is only favored by two.

The reason for that, to be frank, comes from the Bengals’ improvement. This might sound strange when talking about the reigning AFC champion, but Cincinnati has progressed to a better spot right now than it was at the end of last year; the advanced-team rating at FiveThirtyEight reflects this, as the Bengals currently are at their highest mark since the 2015 season.

KC, if you were wondering, is roughly at the same team strength as it was during last year’s AFC Championship, according to FiveThirtyEight. So the Bengals have “caught up” a point or two even after sweeping the Chiefs last year, even if the line reflects accurately that KC remains the better team.

There are all sorts of storylines and motivations here. The Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are trying to atone for last year’s AFC Championship debacle against these same Bengals. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been fired up this week by bulletin-board comments from KC safety Justin Reid, with many players showing their displeasure on both social media and in interview settings.

On the field, the Bengals should get a considerable boost from receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is expected to return from a hip injury. Combine him with quarterback Joe Burrow and receiver Tee Higgins, and Cincinnati’s passing offense — with help from better pass blocking this year — should be just as lethal as it was a season ago.

No matter how many ways I try to analyze this, everything returns to Mahomes. He’s talked so much about trying to take lessons from last year’s Cincinnati game. He’s admitted this game means more to him than others, and he’s spoken about wanting to show growth after playing his worst professional half of football in the second half against the Bengals last year.

Cincinnati’s pass defense is good — led again by standout edge rusher Trey Hendrickson — but the Chiefs have also had success this season against strong defenses on the road (such as Tampa Bay and San Francisco) during two of their biggest games.

KC needs the good Mahomes, or Cincy can easily win this game. The Chiefs rookie-led secondary also will likely get its toughest test yet while still needing to prove it can shut down No. 1-wideout-types like Chase and Higgins have become.

It’s still just hard to bet against a ticked-off, motivated Mahomes in a game — especially when Chiefs coach Andy Reid is likely to pull out every offensive trick from the playbook, given the high stakes.

Give me the Chiefs for both the outright win and cover.

Chiefs 31, Bengals 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 24, Rams 14 (Actual: Chiefs 26-10) ❌

This year’s record vs. spread: 6-5