CEE MARKETS-FX holds gains ahead of ECB meeting

Radu-Sorin Marinas
·3 min read

By Radu-Sorin Marinas BUCHAREST, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were steady on Thursday, tracking the euro ahead of the European Central Bank meeting, as the dollar declined against major peers. The ECB had extended stimulus well into next year with a massive support package last month as the spreading second wave of COVID-19 dims an already weak outlook. It is expected to keep its easy money policy unchanged later in the day. "Today, a positive reception of the ECB's decision by the euro may indirectly support the zloty and the currencies of the region," Konrad Bialas, chief economist at DM TMS Brokers said in a note. Bialas said the Polish currency benefits to a limited extent from the improvement in sentiment in the external markets and generally it "continues to move sideways in the 4.52-4.54 range." By 1010 GMT, the zloty firmed 0.13% and was trading at 4.5285 to the euro, followed by the Czech crown with a 0.02% rise, while the forint and leu were flat. The Czech crown was trading at around the five-month high hit on Wednesday, stuck around the 26.100 per euro level that has provided strong technical resistance to further gains in the past two months after stopping out several rallies. A Prague-based dealer said the latest test of the level was uncertain as news around coronavirus is mixed, given case numbers have dropped and problems with vaccine deliveries persist. "It is a combination of positive and negative news, so for a stronger crown we would need something stronger as well," the dealer said. The forint, which outperformed its regional peers over the past sessions, could extend gains towards 355, said brokerage Equilor. "That is a very important support level that will most probably turn the direction around." Stock markets in the region were mixed, with Budapest's equities partly recovering after Wednesday's drop to rise 0.3%. Warsaw and Prague were down 0.6%. CEE SNAPSHOT AT MARKETS 1120 CET CURRENCI ES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 Czech 26.1000 26.1020 +0.01% +0.49% crown Hungary 357.2500 357.3000 +0.01% +1.53% forint Polish 4.5306 4.5343 +0.11% +0.63% zloty Romanian 4.8750 4.8742 -0.02% -0.21% leu Croatian 7.5650 7.5645 -0.01% -0.23% kuna Serbian 117.4700 117.5700 +0.09% +0.09% dinar Note: calculated from 1800 CET daily change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 Prague 1068.07 1074.860 -0.63% +3.98% 0 Budapest 44270.64 44103.40 +0.38% +5.14% Warsaw 1985.36 1986.09 -0.04% +0.07% Bucharest 10256.52 10214.06 +0.42% +4.60% Ljubljana 940.00 942.54 -0.27% +4.35% Zagreb 1817.95 1822.34 -0.24% +4.52% Belgrade <.BELEX15 736.99 741.23 -0.57% -1.55% > Sofia 497.01 488.73 +1.69% +11.06% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic 2-year <CZ2YT=RR 0.2210 -0.0390 +093bps -4bps > 5-year <CZ5YT=RR 0.7350 -0.0640 +145bps -7bps > 10-year <CZ10YT=R 1.2470 -0.0210 +177bps -2bps R> Poland 2-year <PL2YT=RR 0.0280 -0.0630 +073bps -7bps > 5-year <PL5YT=RR 0.3770 -0.0260 +109bps -3bps > 10-year <PL10YT=R 1.1970 0.0010 +172bps +0bps R> FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech Rep < 0.38 0.42 0.54 0.36 PRIBOR=> Hungary < 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.75 BUBOR=> Poland < 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.21 WIBOR=> Note: FRA are for ask prices quotes **************************************************** ********** (Additional reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel)

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