California’s COVID-19 surge, still steep in the Bay Area, intensifies in Sacramento

California’s coronavirus surge is worsening, especially in the capital region.

Three of the four counties in the Sacramento region have entered the “medium” community level for COVID-19 danger, according to a weekly update Thursday from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and all four counties could jump to the “high” level as early as next week absent a sudden turnaround in virus hospitalizations.

Yolo County moved into medium last week and was joined this week by Sacramento and Placer counties, due to each county’s seven-day case rate rising above 200 per 100,000 residents. El Dorado County remains in the “low” level but is approaching the threshold, reported Thursday by the CDC, at 194 per 100,000.

A county is moved from medium to high if it has a case rate above 200 while also reaching at least 10 weekly hospital admissions with COVID-19 per 100,000 residents. If that were to happen in Sacramento County, Sacramento City Unified would return to a mask mandate just before the K-12 district breaks for summer.

The hospital rate for all four local counties, which share a health care region under the CDC’s framework, was 9.7 per 100,000 as of Thursday, up from 8.6 a week earlier and on a steady incline since late April.

Hospitals in Sacramento County were treating 144 virus patients as of Thursday, state health officials reported Friday, a 182% increase from the 51 patients in hospital beds at the end of April. Placer County’s hospital tally has grown from 27 to 56 patients since April 30.

Federal guidance calls for indoor masking in counties that reach the high community level for COVID-19. Only 8% of U.S. counties were at that level as of Thursday, none of them in California.

It is unlikely that local mask mandates would return based only on a change to their CDC classification, an official for one county said.

“The only consideration for returning to a mask mandate would be a threat to our health care system,” John Fout, a Yolo County spokesman, said in an emailed response to The Sacramento Bee on Friday.

Yolo County during the pandemic has consistently been home to the Sacramento region’s strictest virus protocols.

Sacramento COVID surge now similar to Bay Area’s

The California Department of Public Health reported the statewide case rate at 30.8 per 100,000 and test positivity at 7% as of Friday, both the state’s highest marks since the first half of February. Those rates dropped as low as about five per 100,000 with 1.2% positivity in March, and each have roughly quintupled since early April.

Many of the state’s highest virus numbers continue to be observed in the Bay Area, including Contra Costa, Marin, Solano and San Francisco counties with some of the state’s highest test positivity rates at 12.3%, 10.9%, 10.9% and 10.8%, respectively.

But rates in the Sacramento area have also soared: El Dorado had the state’s second-highest test positivity at 13.5%. Placer, Yuba and Sacramento counties were also solidly above California’s average, recorded Friday at 12%, 10.6% and 10.4%, respectively.

Per-capita case rates in the Sacramento area remain near the state average, likely due to low testing volume, especially compared to the Bay Area.

Yolo County, which has one of the state’s most robust testing networks, had one of the state’s lowest positivity rates at 3.5% but the Sacramento area’s highest case rate at 35 per 100,000.

California on Thursday eclipsed 2,000 virus patients in hospital beds for the first time since mid-March.

CDPH as of Friday reported 2,056 patients including 244 in intensive care units, up from lows of about 950 hospitalized with about 130 in ICUs during April.

BA.2.12.1 omicron subvariant dominates U.S.

COVID-19 numbers are worsening in the Sacramento area, throughout California and across most of the U.S. due to the growing spread of multiple contagious subvariants of the omicron variant.

The most prevalent subvariant is now BA.2.12.1, which health officials say is roughly 25% more contagious than BA.2 — another subvariant already significantly more transmissible than the original omicron strain, BA.1.

According to a weekly update from the CDC on Tuesday, BA.2.12.1 overtook BA.2 as the nation’s dominant variant last week, making up 58% of U.S. cases compared to 39% for BA.2. Previously dominant BA.1 strains of omicron made up the remaining 3%.

For the CDC region including California, BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 made up 49% and 48%, respectively.

School outbreaks

K-12 schools continue to see large caseloads as the academic year nears its conclusion, especially at high school campuses.

More than a dozen schools across the four-county Sacramento region reported at least 25 active infections among students and staff this week, according to districts’ COVID-19 data dashboards.

Rio Americano High School in Arden Arcade appears to have the largest current case cluster with 72 active infections – 63 in students and nine in staff members, as of a Friday update from San Juan Unified.

Oakmont High recorded 52 active cases in students and one in an employee as of a Tuesday update from Roseville Joint Union.

Inderkum High had 40 students and five staff with active COVID-19 as of a Tuesday update, as well as 137 in at-home quarantine, according to Natomas Unified.

Many high schools recently held end-of-year events, such as senior ball, and are now in the midst of preparing for graduation ceremonies.

Sacramento State last weekend held its first in-person graduation ceremony indoors at Golden 1 Center since the start of the pandemic.

Sacramento-area numbers by county

Sacramento County’s latest case rate is 31.8 per 100,000 residents, state health officials said in Friday’s update, a 35% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Sacramento County were treating 144 virus patients Thursday, state data show, up from 112 one week earlier. The intensive care unit total doubled from nine to 18.

Placer County’s latest case rate is 28.9 per 100,000 residents, a 44% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Placer County were treating 56 virus patients Thursday, up from 44 one week earlier. The ICU total increased to seven from three.

Yolo County’s latest case rate is 34.6 per 100,000 residents, a 27% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Yolo County were treating four virus patients Thursday, up from one the previous Thursday. The ICU total was at zero both days.

El Dorado County’s latest case rate is 22.1 per 100,000 residents, a 45% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in El Dorado County were treating six virus patients Thursday, up from four a week earlier. The ICU total dropped to zero from one.

Sutter County’s latest case rate is 15.7 per 100,000 residents and Yuba County’s is 25.9 per 100,000, state health officials reported Friday, respective increases of 39% and 47% compared to last week.

The only hospital in Yuba County, which serves the Yuba-Sutter bi-county area, was treating nine virus patients Thursday, up from four a week earlier. The ICU total remained at zero.