Is California’s COVID-19 surge over? Here are the latest numbers as K-12 classes start

Michael McGough
·4 min read

Coronavirus numbers are starting to improve more rapidly in California, after transmission rates climbed from April through mid-July due to contagious subvariants of omicron gaining traction.

The California Department of Public Health on Tuesday reported the statewide COVID-19 case rate at 33.7 per 100,000 residents, a 19% decline in the past week.

CDPH also reported the key metric of test positivity at 12.7% – down from 14.6% one week earlier and marking the state’s best rate since June 23. California peaked during the latest surge at 16.3% on July 15, after soaring to 22.5% in January during the original omicron surge and recovering to as low as 1.2% in late March.

The number of COVID-positive cases in hospital beds, which reached nearly 4,700 late last month including just over 550 in intensive care units, had dropped to 4,228 with 474 in an ICU as of Tuesday’s state data update. The first omicron surge earlier this year peaked at more than 15,000 hospitalized with 2,600 in intensive care.

California on Friday surpassed 10 million lab-confirmed since the start of the pandemic in 2020, of which more than 93,000 have died. The true infection total is likely much higher: CDPH counts only lab-confirmed cases, meaning the official tally does not include the many at-home rapid tests that go unreported to state health officials.

The latest surge from which California is rebounding came as more contagious subvariants of omicron grew more pervasive within the state and nationwide.

The current dominant variant in the United States, BA.5, comprised 87% of cases nationwide and 91% of cases in the region including California, according to a weekly update Tuesday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Including its sister variant BA.4, the pair combined for more than 98% of cases nationwide and in California last week.

The CDC in a weekly update Thursday removed Sacramento and Yolo counties from its “high” community level for COVID-19 danger, joining neighbors El Dorado and Placer counties in the “medium” level. The federal health agency advises masking in indoor public settings in counties classified within the high community level.

Transmission rates in California, including the capital region, remain high relative to several low points within the pandemic, and large case clusters may continue to emerge in the coming weeks.

Last week, the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office reported an outbreak of more than 100 inmate virus cases at the Rio Cosumnes Correctional Center in Elk Grove.

Most local K-12 districts start their school year this month, which could also drive transmission.

Sacramento-area numbers by county

Sacramento County’s latest case rate is 27.5 per 100,000 residents, state health officials said in Tuesday’s update, a 14% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Sacramento County were treating 176 virus patients Monday, state data show, down from 205 one week earlier. The intensive care unit decreased to 20 from 26.

▪ Placer County’s latest case rate is 19.9 per 100,000 residents, a 6% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Placer County were treating 74 virus patients Monday, down from 82 one week earlier. The ICU total dropped to nine from 11.

▪ Yolo County’s latest case rate is 20 per 100,000 residents, a 23% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Yolo County were treating seven virus patients Monday, up from four a week earlier. The ICU total increased to three from one.

▪ El Dorado County’s latest case rate is 16.3 per 100,000 residents, a 19% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in El Dorado County were treating six virus patients Monday, the same as one week earlier. The ICU total remained at two.

▪ Sutter County’s latest case rate is 31.2 per 100,000 residents, up 4% from last week, and Yuba County’s is 28.5 per 100,000, down 11%, state health officials reported Tuesday.

The only hospital in Yuba County, which serves the Yuba-Sutter bicounty area, was treating six virus patients Monday, down from 13 one week earlier. The ICU total decreased to zero from three.

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