Boris Johnson's protocol gamble raises risk of a trade war with the EU and a political crisis in NI

The body language said it all on Monday as the leaders of Northern Ireland's two main parties faced the cameras after crunch talks with Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald, flanked by the first minister-elect Michelle O'Neill, was clearly furious as she accused the prime minister of making it his priority to placate the Democratic Unionist Party over getting the Stormont assembly up and running again.

"What we needed to hear from Boris Johnson is that the executive must be formed. No ifs, no buts, no conditionality and no unionist veto."

But with the DUP unwilling to participate in power-sharing at Stormont until it has succeeded in overhauling the customs border in the middle of the Irish sea, there is a unionist veto that Mr Johnson is trying to unlock.

And when DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, emerged from his audience with the prime minister, his demeanour was of a politician who had made progress.

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"We've waited a long time for this moment," he told me as he addressed journalists outside Hillsborough Castle.

"We've waiting a long time to see the government bring forward proposals that represent action to deal with the problems cause by the Irish sea border."

That action will come on Tuesday when the government outlines a plan to introduce legislation to unilaterally override parts of the Brexit treaty in order to reduce checks and barriers to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Mr Johnson was at pains on Monday to stress that the proposed legislation was an "insurance policy" that he would rather not have to cash in.

For all the sabre rattling from his foreign secretary last week, the prime minister was far more emollient on Monday telling reporters that he would "love [changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol] to be done in a consensual way with our friends and partners, ironing out the problems, stopping some of these barriers east [to] west [across the Irish Sea]. But to get that done, to have the insurance, we need to proceed with a legislative solution at the same time".

The prime minister was at pains to send a more conciliatory message to the EU.

UK wants to 'fix the protocol'

The UK wants to "fix the protocol, not scrap it" and would like to do this through continued negotiations with the EU rather than push through new laws.

The legislation is something the government hopes it will never have to enact - that insurance policy - and is rather designed to reassure the DUP that the government is serious about getting to a better place on the protocol.

But this is a difficult balancing act Mr Johnson is trying to pull off. Because in a nutshell, the DUP wants "actions not words" while the EU wants words but not action.

Put another way, Sir Jeffrey made it very clear to me on Monday that the DUP needs to see legislation being brought rather than just announced.

"The tabling of legislation is words. What I need is decisive action. And that means I want to see the government enact legislation that will bring the solution that we need."

From the European Union's perspective, words it can live with, action it cannot, with EU sources warning that passing laws unilaterally to override part of the Brexit treaty would cause serious difficulties between London and Brussels.

"Our key message is that unilateral solutions are not part of the solution they are part of the problem."

Passing laws would collapse talks, could trigger a trade war and damage UK-US relations. All of these are things Mr Johnson, despite some recent rhetoric from his government, is keen to avoid.

And finally, for all Sinn Fein's frustration on Monday, it will be part of the solution, not the problem. For all the vocal criticism of Mr Johnson and his tactics, the Republicans are clear they will not collapse the power-sharing deal should the UK unilaterally overwrite parts of the protocol.

"There are no red lines for us when it comes to power-sharing, bar that power is shared," is how Ms McDonald put it to me, before adding that Sinn Fein saw "no circumstances in which the protocol can be wished away, spirited away, or indeed legislated away".

Read more:
What is power-sharing and why does Northern Ireland use it?
What is the Northern Ireland Protocol and why does it matter?

It was nearly a year ago - last July - that London set out demands for a series of reforms to the Northern Ireland Protocol, and six months ago - last October - that the European Commission tabled new proposals. But the deadlock remains and is now threatening the functioning of Northern Ireland's assembly.

On Tuesday, the UK government will outline legislation to address issues with the current implementation of the protocol and I am told that proposed changes will cover areas of trade, tax and spend, regulations and constitutional areas where agreement has not been reached.

Challenges of the delicate diplomatic dance are obvious

What the UK government hopes is that this legislation, which it intends to progress (if not actually pass) through Parliament will restore the DUP's faith in the Johnson government and prompt the DUP to elect a Speaker to Stormont and get the power-sharing process underway once more.

But the challenges of the delicate diplomatic dance are obvious. The EU is adamant that the Withdrawal Agreement is honoured, and that the UK government faces up to the consequence of Brexit - a trade border between the EU's single market and the UK.

The DUP meanwhile views this barrier as an existential threat to Northern Ireland's standing as part of the United Kingdom and is in little mood to compromise.

Mr Johnson is gambling that risking a fight with Brussels might bring the DUP around. If he's wrong, not only will he be dealing with a political crisis in Northern Ireland but could be eyeing a trade war with the EU too.