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Boris Johnson faces losing by-election, Tory peer warns

Boris Johnson faces losing by-election, Tory peer warns

Boris Johnson would probably lose a by-election in his west London constituency if one is triggered following the Commons Privileges Committee probe into partygate, a Conservative peer and leading pollster warned on Thursday.

The former Prime Minister is fighting for his political future after MPs investigating his partygate denials to Parliament denounced the “flimsy” assurances they were based on.

Following Wednesday’s three hour grilling, the Committee is now weighing whether Mr Johnson recklessly or intentionally misled Parliament when he told MPs that Covid lockdown guidance was followed during parties and social gatherings in No10 and Whitehall during the pandemic.

Boris Johnson leaves his home in London on Thursday (PA)
Boris Johnson leaves his home in London on Thursday (PA)

If found in contempt of Parliament, the MPs could call for a suspension with a ban of 10 days or more opening the way for a so-called recall petition which could lead to a by-election in Mr Johnson’s Uxbridge and Ruislip seat.

Lord Robert Hayward said a vote in the constituency would cause “serious problems” for the Tories at a time when they are around 20 points behind Labour in national polls.

Speaking to Sky News, the Tory peer added: “The party doesn’t want a by-election. My guess is that if there were a by-election - certainly on current polls - we would lose the constituency.”

Asked if the return of partygate and Mr Johnson to the headlines damaged Rishi Sunak’s chances of turning Tory fortunes around before a general election, likely next year, he added: “It muddies the waters. There’s no question about that.

“Rishi Sunak is trying to get a clear message of competence and managerial expertise as a prime minister and every time this issue comes back, people are reminded of the chaos that there was in the Tory party last year.”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits RAF Valley (Simon Dawson / No10 Downing Street)
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits RAF Valley (Simon Dawson / No10 Downing Street)

In at times short-tempered testimony, to the Privileges Committee on Wednesday afternoon, the former prime minister insisted there was not a “shred of evidence” to show he lied to MPs.

It would have been “utterly insane” for him to have misled Parliament, he told the Committee.

Arch-loyalist Jacob Rees-Mogg said Mr Johnson won public support with his defences despite them being met with exasperation by multiple members of the cross-party panel of MPs grilling him.

The Tory MP told Channel 4 News: “I think that if Boris Johnson went to a by-election he would win it comfortably. Because I think he’s winning in the court of public opinion, who see this as a kangaroo court.”

Mr Johnson declined to repeat such attacks against the inquiry by some of his supporters but hit out at the “manifestly unfair” process.

He appeared to argue that the committee’s fairness would be proved if he was exonerated of any wrongdoing.

He accepted he misled MPs but said he did not do so “recklessly”, insisting he denied lockdown breaches “in good faith” on the advice of officials, who turned out to be wrong.

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson - In pictures

Boris Johnson speaks during Prime Minister's Questions session (Via REUTERS)
Boris Johnson speaks during Prime Minister's Questions session (Via REUTERS)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds enter Downing Street as the Conservatives celebrate a sweeping election victory (Jeremy Selwyn)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds enter Downing Street as the Conservatives celebrate a sweeping election victory (Jeremy Selwyn)
Britain's New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is welcomed into 10 Downing Street by staff (AP)
Britain's New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is welcomed into 10 Downing Street by staff (AP)
Boris Johnson with President Volodymyr Zelensky, during his visit to Kyiv in April 2022 (PA Media)
Boris Johnson with President Volodymyr Zelensky, during his visit to Kyiv in April 2022 (PA Media)
Queen Elizabeth II welcomes newly elected leader of the Conservative party Boris Johnson (PA)
Queen Elizabeth II welcomes newly elected leader of the Conservative party Boris Johnson (PA)
Britain's New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is welcomed into 10 Downing Street by staff (AP)
Britain's New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is welcomed into 10 Downing Street by staff (AP)
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(PA)
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Boris Johnson speaks with the Queen's Royal Hussars stationed in Estonia at the Tapa military base (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Boris Johnson speaks with the Queen's Royal Hussars stationed in Estonia at the Tapa military base (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
(10 Downing Street/AFP via Getty)
(10 Downing Street/AFP via Getty)

Harriet Harman, the Labour chairwoman of the Tory-majority committee, asked whether he could see why they were “a bit dismayed about the flimsy nature” of the assurances.

Senior Tory Sir Bernard Jenkin questioned why Mr Johnson failed to take “proper advice”, which Mr Johnson angrily rejected as “complete nonsense”.

Mr Johnson also hit out at Alberto Costa for raising a “completely ridiculous assessment” after the Conservative suggested his reliance on advisers was a “deflection mechanism”.

The ex-prime minister also suffered a blow when he saw his rebellion against his successor Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland fail.

He took a break from the committee hearing to vote against a key plank of the Windsor Framework but was joined by only 21 Tory rebel MPs, meaning it passed comfortably.

Mr Johnson indicated he could refuse to accept the inquiry’s verdict if it finds he committed a contempt of Parliament by deliberately misleading the Commons, saying he would “wait to see”.

The remark was echoed by Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands when asked if the committee was being fair to Mr Johnson.

“We’ll have to wait and see,” he told ITV1’s Peston. “I think it’s impossible to judge that until we see the report.”

Senior Tory MP Caroline Nokes predicted any hopes Mr Johnson might have of a return to Downing Street are futile.

Asked whether he is finished if he is punished, she told Peston: “I think that Boris Johnson is finished anyway.”

A campaign group representing families bereaved in the pandemic accused Mr Johnson of deflecting and blaming everyone but himself.

Lobby Akinnola, from Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, told BBC Newsnight: “A fair question is, does he need to be advised to tell the truth? And I think secondly, does he need advice to follow his own rules that he set?”