’12 Years a Slave’s’ Best Picture Oscar is a big win for the Toronto International Film Festival

Can Toronto International Film Festival audiences pick ‘em or what? As industry watchers predicted back in September, Steve McQueen’s “12 Years a Slave” became the fifth TIFF People’s Choice award winner in the festival’s history to go on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. The slavery drama is also the twelfth winner of the People’s Choice overall to be nominated for Oscar’s top prize.

Past Best Picture nominees that began their Academy Awards run in Toronto include “Chariots of Fire” (1981), “The Big Chill” (1983), “Places in the Heart” (1984), “Shine” (1996), “Life Is Beautiful” (1998), “American Beauty” (1999), “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000), “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “Precious” (2009), “The King's Speech” (2010), and “Silver Linings Playbook” (2012). Of those nominated films, “Chariots of Fire,” “American Beauty,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The King’s Speech,” and now “12 Years a Slave” have gone on to win Best Picture.

Although TIFF’s People’s Choice award is no guarantee of future success (see 2011’s forgotten winner "Where Do We Go Now?"), the number of past recipients to go on to Oscar glory (including a number of Best Documentary and Best Foreign Language Film nominees and winners) is now so significant that the festival’s impact on the Oscar race cannot be ignored. The pattern has been repeated so many times now that the Toronto International Film Festival can seriously be considered the unofficial Oscar indicator.

What is it about the People’s Choice Award that makes it such a predictor in the Oscar race? The key factor seems to be that the winner is determined by the public. Audiences vote for qualifying films during the festival, and TIFF announces the winner on the final day of the event. For whatever reason, it appears that the sensibilities of the 400,000-strong Toronto film fest audiences are largely in tune with that of the 6,000-member Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

It also doesn’t hurt that the major Hollywood studios bring out the big guns for Toronto. So-called “prestige pictures” set for release during the holidays (in that sought-after pre-awards season window) almost always bow at TIFF the previous September. Producers and distributors know the positive effects that a good Toronto showing can have on a film and they are eager to use the Canadian film festival as an Oscar springboard. “Slumdog Millionaire” did it, “The King’s Speech” did it, and “12 Years a Slave” has done it, too.

Keep an eye on those Toronto International Film Festival line-up announcements this summer: You may just see the 2015 Best Picture winner amongst the titles announced.