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Does movie tracking mean anything? 4 movies that bucked Hollywood box office expectations

Despite stellar early reviews (currently 93 per cent on Rotten Tomatoes) and a fantastic elevator pitch (“Groundhog Day” meets “Starship Troopers”?!), Tom Cruise’s upcoming film “Edge of Tomorrow” might be headed for financial failure, according to box office watchers.

The $178 million sci-fi adventure stars Cruise and Emily Blunt as a pair of alien-fighting soldiers doomed to relive the same disastrous day over and over again. “Edge of Tomorrow” sounds great on paper and the trailers are compelling enough. So why the gloomy box office forecast?

What is movie tracking?
According to publications with knowledge of such matters (like The Hollywood Reporter, Box Office Mojo, and BoxOffice.com) “Edge of Tomorrow” isn’t tracking well. What is tracking? It’s a prediction or forecast of how a movie is going to perform at the box office. Tracking takes into account things like star power, the financial performance of similar films, how crowded the release calendar is, and general buzz (usually taken from polling or social media chatter).

With Cruise in the lead, “Edge of Tomorrow” has plenty of star power. He’s arguably the biggest movie star on the planet! But it’s the rest of the factors on that list that spell trouble for the film. The “Mission: Impossible” franchise is still a success, but several recent high-profile efforts from Cruise have disappointed at the box office (notably “Knight & Day,” “Jack Reacher,” and “Oblivion”).

Those lacklustre performances factor into the tracking for Cruise’s latest. Then there’s the crowded May release schedule, which includes “The Amazing Spider-Man 2,” “Godzilla,” “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” and the upcoming “Maleficent." Those may hurt early June releases like “Edge of Tomorrow," because summer moviegoers may have had their fill of big budget spectacle by the time “Edge” hits theatres.

But despite what trade publications and sites like Box Office Mojo would lead you to believe, tracking is not an exact science. At best, movie tracking is an educated guess and nothing more. In recent years, there have been countless examples of films that have tracked poorly but ended up doing very well anyways. Here are four recent movies that bucked box office expectations and went on to become hits. (All numbers are based on the domestic box office take)

“The Great Gatsby” (2013)
Predicted Box Office:

$100 million
Actual Box Office: $144.8 million

Many industry watchers predicted that director Baz Luhrman's lavish 3D adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's "The Great Gatsby" would barely earn back its enormous $105 million budget. Ever the box office champ, though, star Leonardo DiCaprio helped power the film to a $145 million domestic box office haul (45 per cent higher than predicted) and another $206 million worldwide.


“World War Z” (2013)
Predicted Box Office:

$100 million
Actual Box Office:
$202 million
After some rumoured script problems and very high-profile budget and reshoot issues, the buzz surrounding Brad Pitt's zombie apocalypse actioner "World War Z" was not good. With a $190 million budget, many box office watchers believed the film would have a very hard time making back its money. Pitt surprised everyone with the biggest opening weekend of his career ($66 million) and the movie went on to make over $540 million worldwide.


“Now You See Me” (2013)
Predicted Box Office:

$50 million
Actual Box Office: $117 million

The star-studded magic caper "Now You See Me" has all but vanished from the minds of moviegoers by now, but despite poor tracking leading up to its release, it proved to be a popular diversion at the cinema. Predictions that the film would only bring in about $50 million were disproven when the movie went on to make nearly $120 million. Talk about box office magic!


“Gravity” (2013)
Predicted Box Office: $85 million
Actual Box Office: $274 million


Megastars George Clooney and Sandra Bullock together on screen for an extended period of time? Box office trackers were crazy to underestimate the appeal of Alfonso Cuaron's harrowing space thriller. "Gravity" exceeded everyone's expectations, pulling in $274 million domestically and becoming one of the biggest hits of 2013.

As these four movies demonstrated, tracking-schmacking! There may yet be hope for “Edge of Tomorrow.” Reports of its impending box office demise may be greatly exaggerated.

"Edge of Tomorrow" hits theatres on June 6.