State of the Race: Where We Stand After the Golden Globe Nominations

Today's Golden Globe nominations were a serious reality check regarding the real frontrunners of the Awards Season — and it's not "Lee Daniels' The Butler."

After weeks of speculation, and a couple high-profile eleventh-hour premieres from Martin Scorsese and David O. Russell, today's Globes noms — as well as recent SAG, Indie Spirit and various critics groups announcements — have revealed the major contenders that will define the Oscars race from this day forward.

What films are locks, bubbles, in trouble, and gone? Here's our take:

LOCKED AND LOADED

With seven nominations apiece, the Golden Globes confirmed what was already very clear: "American Hustle" and "12 Years a Slave" are locks for the Best Picture race, buoyed by big ensemble casts that translate into Academy votes.

"Gravity" is still very much in orbit, with a hold on Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. Look for a lot of technical awards.

And then there are the swing movies that are now clearly in the race. With five nominations, Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" comes on very strong (and ahead of hipster rival "Inside Llewyn Davis"). It's cemented its status with five nominations in critical categories: Best Picture, Best Screenplay, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.

[Related: 'Slave,' 'Hustle' Lead Golden Globe Nominations]

For "Captain Philips" doubters, the Somali pirate thriller is definitely a contender — and the place that everybody's favorite Tom Hanks will put his energies now that "Saving Mr. Banks" is sliding.

And "Philomena" is coming up from behind is this year's "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" slot. It earns its laughs and its tears while pairing a dynamic performance from Judi Dench with a great script from co-star Steve Coogan and a movie that will connect with the senior set, which is a key Academy constituency.

ON THE BUBBLE

The most common bubble that weakens some major contenders is a disconnect — often strong recognition for performances with a weakening of support for the film overall. Take critical darling "Inside Llewyn Davis," which did make Best Picture, Musical or Comedy, and got a Best Actor nod for rising star Oscar Isaac, but failed to get the typical screenplay and director love for masterminds Joel and Ethan Coen. It's a sign of weakness for the movie's prospects overall.

"Dallas Buyers Club," "All Is Lost," and "Blue Jasmine" got strong support for the actors. Note: Robert Redford is back in the race after a SAG snub yesterday. But the movies overall did not get their props — and it's a definite sign of slippage that Woody Allen did not get recognized for his work as a writer-director.

With a Best Picture, Musical or Comedy nomination, critical darling "Her" found a place for Joaquin Phoenix at the table in a surprisingly sweet romantic role that couldn't be farther from his mannered performance in last year's "The Master." It made the screenplay cut for writer-director Spike Jonze, but missed out in the director category. It still may rise in a competitive race but it's not a sure thing.

[Related: 8 Golden Globes Snubs and Surprises]

As for "Rush," the Ron Howard racing flick got a lot of love today, stealing a Best Picture, Drama slot from more popular films and getting recognition for supporting player Daniel Brühl. This showing has the hallmarks of a Golden Globe anomaly. Don't expect "Rush" to speed into the Oscar race.

And, while Martin Scorsese's "The Wolf of Wall Street" slipped into the Best Picture, Musical or Comedy category, and its star Leonardo DiCaprio got Best Actor recognition, it failed to get a bump for its director, screenplay, or co-star Jonah Hill. The wolf may have been defanged.

TROUBLE IN PARADISE

"Saving Mr. Banks" won't rescue the Oscar hopes of Walt Disney Pictures. While Emma Thompson has become a lock in the Best Actress race for her tart portrayal of P. L. Travers, aka the author of "Mary Poppins," that was the only nomination the movie received. That's a blow to Hanks, who played Walt Disney (and Team Disney in general).

Forget about "Lee Daniels' The Butler," too. No Oprah? Really? We'd have bet the mortgage payment on that one. Chalk it up to being too early to the theaters, or for falling to another historically minded juggernaut, "12 Years a Slave," but a complete shut-out is not good news here.

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"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom" has become a movie driven by an amazing performance from Idris Elba in the title role, but despite the historic passing of its subject, it hasn't achieved overall contender status.

DOWN FOR THE COUNT
Put a fork in these titles that had red carpet dreams: "Fruitvale Station" will not be this year's "Beast of the Southern Wild." In a year when the Best Actor race is the most competitive, that's also not good news for its star Michael B. Jordan.

Ben Stiller's "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty" remake did not get any love here, even when there was a separate category for comedy. The cast of the popular "Prisoners" — Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Melissa Leo — have been on the wining-and-dining circuit and still didn't get any love.

And, as for "Monster's University," the Pixar player is flunking out of the animation race, losing out at the Globes to "Frozen," "Despicable Me 2," and perhaps most surprisingly, "The Croods."

The 71st Annual Golden Globes Awards, hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, will be handed out live on NBC on Jan. 12 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.