The biggest game of the 2022 Kentucky football season will arrive early

For Mark Stoops and troops, there is one goal for the 2022 Kentucky football season:

Play well enough that UK’s home meeting with reigning national champion Georgia in the next-to-last game of the regular season is for the SEC East title.

To make that happen, Kentucky must take advantage of a schedule that will feature six teams that either went 7-6 or 6-7 in 2021 — the Ohio-version of Miami (7-6); at Florida (6-7); South Carolina (7-6); Mississippi State (7-6); at Tennessee (7-6); and at Missouri (6-7).

Based on both 1.) UK’s realistic opportunity of winning; and 2.) the program ramifications that would come with victory, this is how each game of the 2022 Kentucky football season ranks in terms of importance.

12. Youngstown State (3-7 in 2021). A UK loss to an FCS opponent — which Kentucky flirted with last season against Chattanooga — would be calamitous.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

11. Miami (Ohio) (7-6). Kentucky’s opening-week opponent played competitively last season in a 31-26 loss at Minnesota of the Big Ten.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

10. Vanderbilt (2-10). Clark Lea seems to be doing a good job recruiting but the second-year Vandy coach is trying to climb from a very deep hole — the Commodores have lost 21 straight SEC games.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

9. Northern Illinois (9-5). Last season, the Huskies kicked off their campaign with a 22-21 upset of Georgia Tech of the ACC. Interestingly, Northern Illinois will travel to Lexington (Sept. 24) the week after playing host to another SEC East foe, Vanderbilt.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

8. At Mississippi (10-3). A pair of close losses to Ole Miss in Lexington — 37-34 in 2017 and 42-41 in overtime in 2020 — are two of the more disappointing defeats during UK’s Stoops-era ascension.

Kentucky will seek to return the favor in Oxford — where the Wildcats have not won since 1978.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Low, but not impossible.

Program ramifications of winning: Medium.

7. At Missouri (6-7). Kentucky has bested Mizzou in six of the past seven meetings but the Wildcats have not played well in Columbia on their last two visits. The UK defensive brain trust is likely pleased that short-passing game nemesis Connor Bazelak is now quarterbacking Indiana.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Moderate.

Program ramifications of winning: Medium.

6. Mississippi State (7-6). Kentucky’s series with its permanent SEC West rival has turned into a home-field-advantage extravaganza. MSU has beaten UK six straight times in Starkville, while the Wildcats have bested the Bulldogs three straight in Lexington — where this season’s meeting will occur.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Good.

Program ramifications of winning: Medium.

5. South Carolina (7-6). A November victory over Florida and a bowl victory over North Carolina helped Shane Beamer end his first season as Gamecocks head man with positive mojo.

The Gamecocks have since added former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler to be their starting signal-caller.

South Carolina, however, has not beaten Kentucky in Lexington since 2012 and has lost seven of its past eight meetings overall with the Wildcats.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Good.

Program ramifications of winning: Medium.

4. Louisville (6-7). The Cardinals have taken an L’s down in four of the past five battles for the Governor’s Cup — and been outscored 153-44 by Kentucky while losing the past three meetings.

The last time U of L beat UK, however, came in 2017 when Kentucky had played Georgia the prior week — the same scheduling scenario that exists for 2022. Unlike 2017, though, Lamar Jackson will not be weaving magic for Louisville.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Good.

Program ramifications of winning: High.

3. Georgia (14-1). Obviously, if this game turns out to be for the SEC East lead — as Cats-Dawgs games were in 2018 and 2021 — it becomes the most important on the Kentucky schedule.

But an awful lot needs to happen first for that to occur.

The Wildcats have not beaten the Bulldogs since 2009 and have not tamed the Dawgs in Lexington since 2006.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Low.

Program ramifications of winning: Gargantuan.

2. Tennessee (7-6). Since 2016, Kentucky has won 47 football games with 25 SEC victories while playing in six bowls with four postseason wins.

Since 2016, Tennessee has won 36 football games with 18 SEC victories while playing in three bowls with two postseason wins.

Yet in the head-to-head vs. the Rocky Toppers since 2016, Kentucky is only 2-4. If UK is to keep climbing in the SEC, that has to change.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Moderate.

Program ramifications of winning: High.

1. Florida (6-7). Since 1986, Kentucky has mastered the mighty Gators twice — in 2018 and last season. It is not a coincidence that those are UK’s only two 10-win seasons since 1977.

For Kentucky, beating Florida unlocks the path to a special season.

Will Levis having been hoisted aboard this spring’s NFL Draft hype train, a strong showing from the Kentucky quarterback in a QB battle vs. rising Florida star Anthony Richardson would serve as major validation.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Moderate.

Program ramifications of winning: Massive.