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Biden blundered in easing sanctions on Venezuela, Cuba. But he can still correct course | Opinion

There are three likely reasons why the Biden administration decided to ease some sanctions on Venezuela and Cuba. They help explain why the White House took these measures, but they are no excuse for the disastrous way in which they were rolled out.

The new measures, announced through unidentified “senior administration officials” on May 16 and May 17, were, in many ways, not as dramatic as some of their critics claimed. In fact, they left the most severe U.S. sanctions on both dictatorships intact.

“The unilateral lifting of sanctions on Venezuela is not going to improve the lives of Venezuelans,” U.S. National Security Council senior director Juan Gonzalez told a Bloomberg forum on Thursday, rejecting calls from Latin American officials for a normalization of U.S.-Venezuelan ties. “Lifting of sanctions is only going to line the pockets of the regime.”

But the new U.S. measures were announced earlier in the week almost in secrecy, with little explanation, which made them look confusing and, in some cases, deceptive.

On May 16, unidentified officials told McClatchy and the Miami Herald that the United States will expand flights to Cuban cities outside Havana, re-establish a family-re-unification program, lift caps on family remittances, and allow group travel for educational and professional purposes. These measures will be implemented in ways to bolster Cuba’s fledgling private sector, and not the regime, the officials said.

A day later, anonymous administration officials told reporters that the White House will ease minor oil sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for a commitment from dictator Nicolás Maduro to return to the negotiating table with Venezuela’s opposition in Mexico and seek common terms for the 2024 presidential elections.

The U.S. diplomatic overture was done in close consultation with Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó, U.S. officials said. Venezuelan sources close to Guaidó confirmed to me that, indeed, they were consulted by the Biden administration weeks before the announcement.

Guaidó agreed to the U.S. plan, but only if the Biden administration made it clear that the easing of U.S. oil sanctions would be temporary and would be reversed in three or four months if Maduro failed meet certain conditions, Venezuelan opposition sources told me. Among the conditions were freeing political prisoners; setting a date for free elections in 2024, with credible international observers; and permission for Venezuelans abroad to vote.

Still, when the Biden administration leaked the plan to reporters, it emphasized the first part of the proposal, but was fuzzy about the potential reversal of the new measures, the Venezuelan sources told me.

Diplomats who are familiar with the talks gave me the following explanations for why the Biden administration may have rushed to make these announcements on Venezuela and Cuba.

First, there is a huge surge in migration of undocumented Cuban migrants entering the United States at the Mexican border, which is projected to reach its highest levels in four decades this year. That’s worsening an already growing flow of migration from Central America and Mexico.

At a time when the Republicans are making immigration a major issue in this year’s mid-term U.S. elections, Biden may have decided to ease some sanctions on Cuba in exchange for Cuban and Mexican efforts to curb the migration flow.

Second, Biden is under heavy pressure from Mexico to invite Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to the June 6 Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. Facing the prospect of a widespread boycott to the summit, the administration may have decided to make some minor goodwill gestures to Cuba and Venezuela as a way to sway undecided Latin American and Caribbean countries attend the Los Angeles summit.

Third, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a major increase in U.S. gas prices. Biden may have been tempted to explore a new round of talks between Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition. An agreement on free elections would lead to a resumption of Venezuelan oil exports, which in turn would help bring down oil prices.

These explanations make sense. But, unless the Biden administration makes clear that its overtures to Venezuela will be reversed on a specific date unless Maduro allows free elections and that the measures on Cuba will not benefit the island’s dictatorship, they are bound to fail.

Worse, they will go down in history as a big blunder.

Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 7 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Twitter: @oppenheimera; Blog: www.andresoppenheimer.com