Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB)

·2 min read

Market forces rained on the parade of AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 14% to US$23.15 in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.

After the downgrade, the consensus from AnaptysBio's six analysts is for revenues of US$11m in 2022, which would reflect a stressful 55% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$4.44 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$18m and losses of US$4.44 per share in 2022. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

View our latest analysis for AnaptysBio

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Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 80% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 49% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AnaptysBio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on AnaptysBio after today.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple AnaptysBio analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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