Analysis: Panthers had the Vikings beat. It was poor play calls that cost them — again

The Panthers had every chance to beat the Vikings on Sunday.

They should have. They should still be in the wild-card playoff chase. Instead, a series of poor coaching decisions cost Carolina in a 28-27 defeat, all but mathematically cementing their spot outside of the postseason for the third consecutive year.

When they scored two defensive touchdowns in the third quarter, and had the ball in Minnesota territory, they had a chance to go up three possessions and shift momentum.

When they had the ball at the Minnesota 9-yard line, with a 24-21 lead and 2:18 left in the game, they had a chance to seal the game again with a touchdown. And when Minnesota got the ball back, trailing 27-21 with 1:54 left, all the Panthers’ defense had to do was keep them out of the end zone.

The Panthers haven’t been able to finish games all season and Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium was no different.

Panthers coach Matt Rhule was right in his assessment of Sunday’s loss.

“I think as a coaching staff we didn’t get the job done today,” Rhule said. “Any time you have two defensive touchdowns and you don’t get the win, it’s on us as a staff.”

Perhaps the biggest mistake came with 2:18 left. The Vikings’ Chad Beebe had just muffed a punt, giving the Panthers the ball back at the Minnesota 9-yard line. Minnesota had only one timeout remaining and the two-minute warning.

The Panthers ran the ball twice to burn Minnesota’s lone remaining timeout. But on third-and-goal from the Minnesota 3, Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady called a pass play to DJ Moore. The play was questionable choice for a variety of reasons.

For one, the Panthers’ passing game had struggled all day. Teddy Bridgewater was 19-of-36 for 267 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception in his Minnesota homecoming.

And had the Panthers run the ball on third down, even if they didn’t find the end zone, they would have run the clock down to at least 1:14. The Vikings had zero timeouts at that point.

“I feel like we may have panicked a little bit, trying to figure out what play call to call in that situation,” Bridgewater said. “I think, honestly we called a great play, we just didn’t have enough time to execute.”

Bridgewater said he felt if they had gotten the play call in sooner, they could have checked to a run play.

But his pass to Moore fell incomplete, and the clock stopped with 1:54 remaining. The Panthers were forced to kick a field goal, which put them up 27-21.

That was more than enough time for the Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to engineer a 7-play, 75 yard touchdown drive. All he needed was 46 seconds and a wide-open Beebe in the back of the end zone

“I don’t really have any words, man,” defensive tackle Zach Kerr said. “We let them go 75 yards to win the game and that’s unacceptable by us.”

Rhule said what allowed Minnesota to move the ball so efficiently on that drive was Carolina’s inability to get pressure on Cousins, but the Panthers only blitzed once in those seven plays — the first play, creating a four-man rush and giving up a 15-yard pass. The next four plays were three-man rushes by the Panthers, giving up passes of 6, 7, 12 and 25 yards, before rushing five and four players, respectively, on the final two Vikings plays.

Even before the muffed punt, the Panthers could have taken more time off the clock with better play calling.

The Panthers had first-and-10 at the Minnesota 47 with 3:12 left. They ran it with third-string running back Rodney Smith, who was signed from the practice squad two weeks ago, and lost four yards. And though the loss wasn’t Smith’s fault — left tackle Russell Okung failed to block linebacker Eric Wilson — the Panthers had better options there, perhaps Davis or Samuel.

On the next play, with 2:26 remaining, Bridgewater threw to Smith, who dropped it, stopping the clock. A run there, forces Minnesota to burn its final timeout.

And on third-and-14, the Panthers went with a pass play to tight end Ian Thomas, who has struggled this season. That pass fell incomplete, too, and only three seconds came off the clock. A run there, gets the clock to two minutes.

Had the Panthers run the football each play that series and and gotten the ball back with just under two minutes with no timeouts for the Vikings, they could have ran the clock out with three consecutive runs.

Sunday’s loss, and the way it happened, was just a microcosm of the 2020 season. This isn’t the first time a questionable play call has hurt the Panthers.

Remember Week 1 against Las Vegas, when Brady called a fullback run with Alex Armah on fourth-and-short, instead of running it with All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who was healthy at the time? Stuffed. The Panthers lost, 34-30.

Or Week 10, when Rhule said he called a punt fake on fourth-and-5 from the Carolina 40, in the third quarter. That played resulted in sack, and the Bucs took advantage and made a manageable game, unmanageable. The Bucs won 46-23.

It’s play calls and mistakes like these that have cost the Panthers. Too often they’ve failed to close games this season. They’re 2-6 in games decided by one possession or less. The two wins came after the Panthers had a two-possession lead, and barely hung on.

The Panthers led by as many as 11 Sunday, and had plenty of chances to increase its lead to at least two touchdowns.

But the Panthers — mainly its offense and special teams — failed to take advantage of their opportunities. The Panthers were 0-for-3 on red-zone touchdown opportunities. One of those ended in a field goal. One ended in a blocked field goal. And the other was an interception by Bridgewater into double coverage in the first half.

“I really felt like offensively we were going to play much better, and we just didn’t,” Rhule said.

But more than the offense, special teams let Carolina down. In addition to Slye’s blocked kick, he missed a 54-yard field goal to win the game. It was his third potentially game-winning or -tying field goal he has missed.

The first two were excusable, as they were from 65-yards out. This one was manageable.

Sunday’s was more of the same for the 2020 Panthers. If the Panthers want to become a winning team, they’ll have to take advantage of the opportunities that are well within reach. Rhule knows it. That’s why he put the blame on the staff.

Because this game, even more so than others, should have been won.