The Adam Duvall hot streak is an enigma, but it doesn’t usually surprise Miami’s slugger

There’s a nonzero chance that Adam Duvall, while he took practice swings in a batting cage somewhere in the bowels of Wrigley Field over the weekend, made a passing mention about how good his swing was feeling. It obviously showed on the field, where he hit two home runs in back-to-back games Friday and Saturday to help the Miami Marlins win a series against the Chicago Cubs, and what he does on the field isn’t usually too far off from his expectations on any given day.

“A lot of the times, I’ll know in the cage before the game,” Duvall said. “Like, It’s coming through right today.”

The Duvall hot streak isn’t unfamiliar to MLB and even the Marlins, who have had the outfielder for less than three months, have already ridden a few of them.

In April, Duvall posted a .297 batting average with three home runs across 10 games and Miami went 7-3. In May, Duvall hit .302 with four home runs across 14 games and the Marlins went 8-6. Those two two-homer games in Chicago gave Duvall a .326 average and seven home runs in an 11-game stretch, and powered Miami to a series win against the Cubs.

When everything feels right, Duvall can singlehandedly lift the Marlins to victory. The trick is figuring out when everything is going to be just right for 32-year-old.

“When he’s going, you feel like you can put him anywhere,” manager Don Mattingly said Friday, “and then all of a sudden you see him cool off...”

Mattingly paused, smiled and tried to find the right way — the diplomatic way — to describe the phenomenon.

“It’s like you don’t know,” he finally said.

After all, Duvall went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts Sunday, then 0 for 4 again Tuesday in the Marlins’ 2-1 loss to the Blue Jays in front of 6,291 at loanDepot park.

It comes with the territory for Duvall, who was an All-Star in 2016 and has looked like an All-Star for another couple dozen one-week stretches of his career. Duvall is unabashed in his approach. Every time he steps to the plate, he said, he considers himself to be in scoring position.

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All he really worries about is barreling up balls

“Put the barrel on the ball,” Duvall said, “and good things will eventually happen.”

It is, of course, easier said than done.

Duvall’s latest hot streak gave him 16 home runs and 52 RBIs to lead the National League, but he was batting below the Mendoza Line as recently as June 4 and still has the fifth most strikeouts in the league. Even with MLB batting averages lower than they’ve been since 1968 and strikeouts higher than ever, Duvall sits on the extremes for a heart-of-the-order hitter.

Adam Duvall’s hot streak streak continues as Miami Marlins take road series vs Cubs

Duvall embodies the modern-day approach. He swings for the fences every time up, even if it means striking out a lot. He rips line drives through opposing shifts, even when it probably costs him a few dozen points in batting average.

He is, as Mattingly puts it, “instant hot” and it’s how he’s most valuable. For Miami, he’s even the team’s second most valuable position player, in terms of Baseball-Reference.com’s wins above replacement.

“I try to keep my plan simple that way I’m not trying to differ it between at-bats,” Duvall said. “The main thing is to barrel up the ball or draw a walk, really. After I barrel the ball, it can go right at somebody, but the goal is to barrel the ball.”

There are secrets to getting one of Duvall’s hot streaks going — or, rather, keys because the secrets aren’t so complicated.

It starts with his mechanics, just like for anyone. On some days, his swing is “a little more fundamental than on other days.” Obviously, these are the days when he looks better at the plate.

Next up is his chase rate. This year, he’s swinging at pitches outside the zone nearly 36 percent of the time, which ranks among the worst 25 percent of hitters in the Majors. In Chicago, he brought it down to 31 percent.

Ultimately, it all comes back to barrels, though, and Duvall’s approach at least yields results. He ranks among the top 10 percent of the league in barrel percentage with 23 barrels on 139 batted balls. As long the barrel rate is good, the trade-off is worth it.

“Whenever you start to swing well ... you’re getting good pitches to hit, you’re swinging at the pitches to hit and you’re not missing them,” Duvall said. “There’s so many different things that can go wrong, so it’s impossible to sustain over a long period of time.”

Marlins let down Sandy Alcantara

Sandy Alcantara was cruising through eight innings Tuesday when the Marlins’ inert offense — and the unfortunate realities of the NL in 2021 — sent him heading back to the clubhouse.

Miami (31-41) was tied 1-1 with the Blue Jays (36-35) when the starting pitcher’s turn in the order came up with one out in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Marlins didn’t have anyone on base, but Mattingly decided to bring in Sandy Leon as a pinch hitter.

The catcher struck out on three pitches, then Jazz Chisholm Jr. struck out on four to end the inning. Alcantara was out of the game and Miami didn’t get anything out of it. In the top of the ninth, Toronto took advantage to deal the decisive blow against relief pitcher Yimi Garcia.

Toronto’s Cavan Biggio laced a one-out double to right field and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. drove him home with another double off Garcia (3-6) to score the winning in Miami. The Marlins, who scored their only run on a solo home run by rookie outfielder Jesus Sanchez, went down in order in the ninth to open a six-game homestand with a loss, despite Alcantara’s gem. The starter gave up just five hits and one walk with three strikeouts to complete eight innings for the second straight outing.

Miami managed just three hits against Blue Jays pitcher Ross Stripling and three relievers, including Tim Mayza, who struck out two. Mayza (2-1) worked a 1-2-3 eighth inning, then fellow Toronto relief pitcher Jordan Romano notched the save by setting down outfielder Starling Marte, first baseman Jesus Aguilar and Duvall in order after Marte got caught stealing for the first out.

Sanchez, Cooper make injury progress

Sixto Sanchez is now throwing from 120 feet as he recovers from a lingering shoulder injury and Garrett Cooper is getting ready to head out on a rehab assignment after battling a lumbar strain.

Those were the two most positive developments for the still-injury-riddled Marlins as they returned to Miami for a six-game homestand Tuesday.

Cooper took batting practice on the field Tuesday and should begin a rehab assignment later this week, which should put him on track to return next week when the Marlins hit the road for a six-game road trip. The slugger hasn’t played since June 7.

“Not that he’s going to need a ton of at-bats, I think just enough to know that this is not going to come back on him,” manager Don Mattingly said.

Corey Dickerson, meanwhile, has still not resumed baseball activity after landing on the 10-day injured list with a left foot contusion last Tuesday. Mattingly said the outfielder will be in a boot for about two more weeks, then be reevaluated.

“That came from, I think, a couple of different opinions that we tried to get it to the right places,” Mattingly said.

Miami provided another six other injury updates Tuesday:

▪ Elieser Hernandez is doing range-of-motion drills and light tossing this week. The pitcher is on the 60-day IL with a quad injury and will be out until at least August.

▪ Brian Anderson began a swing progression Monday with dry swings. Anderson, who can play both third base and outfield, is also on the 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and will be out until at least late July.

▪ Jose Devers is doing defensive drills and taking batting practice. The middle infielder landed on the 10-day IL with right shoulder discomfort June 14.

▪ Jordan Holloway was slated to make another rehab start for Triple A Jacksonville on Tuesday. The relief pitcher has been on the IL since May with a groin injury.

▪ Nick Neidert is set to make his first rehab start Saturday for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. The pitcher has been on the IL since May with right biceps inflammation.

▪ Jorge Guzman will start and pitch five innings Thursday in extended spring training. The relief pitcher, who’s the organization’s No. 28 prospect in the MLB.com rankings, has yet to pitch in an official game this year.