40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis

·9 min read
Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

The median home sales price in 2021 jumped 16.9% over the 2020 price to 346,900 - the highest increase since 1999, according to the National Association of Realtors. But with mortgage interest rates climbing, the organization's chief economist anticipates home sales will slow in 2022.

Important: 15 Cheap, Beautiful Places To Retire
Find Out: Best States for Eviction Assistance

But the slowdown might already have landed on the doorstep in some cities, according to a new study from GOBankingRates.

Using data from sources that include the U.S. Census Bureau, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2020 American Community Survey and RealtyTrac, GOBankingRates identified the 40 cities most at risk for experiencing a widespread housing crisis. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and homeowner and rental vacancy rates.

All 40 are among the 200 largest cities in the country, but they aren't spread out equally across the nation. They are concentrated in 18 states, with only one state in the West.

Read on to learn which cities could be poised to experience a housing crisis.

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Jacksonville, Florida

  • Total housing units: 348,809

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 46.56%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.0%

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Aurora, Illinois

  • Total housing units: 65,128

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 77.65%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

El Paso, Texas

  • Total housing units: 230,905

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 19.48%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%

Rocky Grimes / Shutterstock.com
Rocky Grimes / Shutterstock.com

Anchorage, Alaska

  • Total housing units: 106,970

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.4%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 83.33%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Akron, Ohio

  • Total housing units: 85,170

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 44.13%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%

Billy Hathorn / Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-SA-3.0
Billy Hathorn / Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-SA-3.0

Killeen, Texas

  • Total housing units: 54,840

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 11.90%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.9%

traveler1116 / Getty Images
traveler1116 / Getty Images

Charleston, South Carolina

  • Total housing units: 57,226

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 44.21%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Little Rock, Arkansas

  • Total housing units: 83,525

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 10.34%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.4%

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Wilmington, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 53,830

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.5%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 84.56%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1 %

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Tulsa, Oklahoma

  • Total housing units: 163,368

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 29.81%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.0%

DenisTangneyJr / iStock.com
DenisTangneyJr / iStock.com

Evansville, Indiana

  • Total housing units: 51,706

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 28.01%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Miami, Florida

  • Total housing units: 180,676

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 69.72%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.2%

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Gainesville, Florida

  • Total housing units: 51,180

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 21.28%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.6%

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Rochester, New York

  • Total housing units: 88,006

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.5%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 78.72%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%

sborisov / Getty Images/iStockphoto
sborisov / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Baltimore, Maryland

  • Total housing units: 242,499

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 28.70%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.1%

OlegAlbinsky / iStock.com
OlegAlbinsky / iStock.com

New York, New York

  • Total housing units: 3,191,691

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 70.88%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%

zrfphoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
zrfphoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 85,091

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 19.54%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Cleveland, Ohio

  • Total housing units: 174,920

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 65.05%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%

Richard Cavalleri / Shutterstock.com
Richard Cavalleri / Shutterstock.com

Fort Lauderdale, Florida

  • Total housing units: 74,968

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 52.97%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 4.1%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Orlando, Florida

  • Total housing units: 113,238

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.5%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 48.31%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 5.0%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Winston-Salem, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 96,611

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 36.90%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Houston, Texas

  • Total housing units: 874,827

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 73.98%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%

bigapple / Getty Images/iStockphoto
bigapple / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Yonkers, New York

  • Total housing units: 75,864

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 86.75%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Mobile, Alabama

  • Total housing units: 78,089

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 24.03%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

  • Total housing units: 613,125

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 59.27%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%

Kruck20 / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Kruck20 / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Greensboro, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 118,126

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 49.12%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%

ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com
ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com

Augusta, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 70,891

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 23.81%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.1%

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Macon, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 58,154

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 19.96%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.7%

Ultima_Gaina / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Ultima_Gaina / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

  • Total housing units: 140,496

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 64.68%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%

traveler1116 / Getty Images
traveler1116 / Getty Images

Fayetteville, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 82,242

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 21.67%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.7 %

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Newark, New Jersey

  • Total housing units: 102,195

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 74.96%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.8%

benkrut / Getty Images/iStockphoto
benkrut / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Rockford, Illinois

  • Total housing units: 62,011

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 58.26%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%

DenisTangneyJr / iStock.com
DenisTangneyJr / iStock.com

Springfield, Massachusetts

  • Total housing units: 56,804

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 79.75%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.0%

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Montgomery, Alabama

  • Total housing units: 79,331

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 33.68%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%

Ron and Patty Thomas / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Ron and Patty Thomas / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Toledo, Ohio

  • Total housing units: 119,215

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 93.16%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%

Davel5957 / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Davel5957 / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Dayton, Ohio

  • Total housing units: 58,748

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 70.02%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.6 %

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Lafayette, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 50,252

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 23.77%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.4%

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Shreveport, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 75,680

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 7.48%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Syracuse, New York

  • Total housing units: 56,384

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 58.07%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.2%

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Laredo, Texas

  • Total housing units: 72,328

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • % of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 49.07%

  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1%

More From GOBankingRates

Methodology: To find the 40 cities that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at the largest 200 cities in terms of total housing units across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2020 American Community Survey; and (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2020 American Community Survey. These four factors were then scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x and factor (4) was weighted 0.5x. The 100 cities most poised for a housing crisis were moved onto the next round of scoring. These 100 cities were then re-ranked and scored on the four factors above as well as (5) foreclosure rate as sourced from RealtyTrac. These five factors were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. For this second round of scoring, factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, factor (4) was weighted 0.5x, and factor (5) was weighted 1.5x. All data was collected on and up to date as of May 23, 2022.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis