2024 Oscars Nomination Predictions For Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 30, 2023): The awards season has officially launched. Some bits of news:

“Past Lives” won big at the Gotham Awards but “Killers of the Flower Moon” got the biggest boost after winning the top prize at the New York Film Critics Awards.

The Oscars announced the ceremony will begin one hour earlier, followed by a special episode of ABC’s “Abbott Elementary.” This is to keep the show from running over.

Aidy Bryant will host the Film Independent Spirit Awards, which will announce its nominees on Tuesday.

SAG Awards have named its team of executive producers to lead its creative team as they head toward the first year on Netflix.

Most significant chart gains: Lily Gladstone and Charles Melton made gains after winning the Gotham and NYFCC awards, proving their major competitors.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

Best Picture

“American Fiction” (MGM)
Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
“Maestro“ (Netflix)
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
“May December” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
“Origin” (Neon)
Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes
“Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Director

Bradley Cooper
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Greta Gerwig
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Cord Jefferson
“American Fiction” (MGM)
Christopher Nolan ***
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Martin Scorsese
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper ***
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Cillian Murphy
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actress in a Leading Role

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
“Origin” (Neon)
Lily Gladstone ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Sandra Hüller
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Carey Mulligan
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Emma Stone
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actor in a Supporting Role

Robert DeNiro
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr.
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling ***
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Charles Melton
“May December” (Netflix)
Mark Ruffalo
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Danielle Brooks
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Penélope Cruz
“Ferrari” (Neon)
Jodie Foster
“Nyad” (Netflix)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph ***
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Alex Convery
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features) ***
David Hemingson
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
“May December” (Netflix)
Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives” (A24)
Celine Song

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“American Fiction” (MGM)
Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig (based on Barbie by Mattel)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan (based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho)
Hayao Miyazaki (director), Toshio Suzuki (producer)
“Elemental” (Pixar)
Peter Sohn, Denise Ream
“Nimona” (Netflix)
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane (directors), Roy Lee, Karen Ann Ryan (producers)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg, Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson
“Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn (directors), Peter Del Vecho, Juan Pablo Reyes Lancaster-Jones (producers)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Arthur Max (production designer), Celia Bobak (set decorator)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Szusza Mihalek (set decorator)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

“Ferrari” (Neon)
Erik Messerschmidt
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Rodrigo Prieto
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Hoyte van Hoytema
“Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Linus Sandgren
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Łukasz Żal

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Lionsgate)
Ann Roth
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline Durran
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jacqueline West
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Holly Waddington

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

“Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
William Goldenberg
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Nick Houy
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Thelma Schoonmaker
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Michelle Tesoro
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Jennifer Lame

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Ivana Primorac
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
Cassie Russek, Alexei Dmitriew
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
Natalie Shea Rose (hair department head), Elle Favorule (make-up department head)
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Kazu Hiro, Sian Grigg, Kay Georgiou, Lori McCoy-Bell
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Nadia Stacey, Mark Couler, Josh Weston

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Sound

“Ferrari” (Neon)
Tony Lamberti (re-recording mixer, supervising sound editor), Andy Nelson (re-recording mixer), Lee Orloff (production sound mixer), Bernard
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
John Pritchett, Mark Ulano (production sound mixers), Philip Stockton (supervising sound editor)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Steve Morrow
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Richard King (sound designer, supervising sound editor), Gary A. Rizzo (re-recording mixer), Kevin O’Connell (re-recording mixer), Willie Burton (production sound mixer)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Johnnie Burn (supervising sound editor, re-recording mixer), Tarn Willers (production sound mixer)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
Jay Cooper, Ian Comley (visual effects supervisors), Andrew Roberts (on set visual effects supervisor), Neil Corbould (supervising special effects supervisor)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, (visual effects supervisors), Dan Sudick (special effects supervisor)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Andrew Jackson (production visual effects supervisor), Giacomo Mineo (visual effects supervisor), Scott Fisher (special effects supervisor), Dave Drzewiecki (visual effects director of photography)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Michael Lasker, Alan Hawkins, Bret St. Clair, Pav Grochola
“Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)
Gary Brozenich, Richard Little, Matt Aitken (visual effects supervisors), J.D. Schwalm (special effects supervisor)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

“American Fiction” (MGM)
Laura Karpman
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robbie Robertson
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Ludwig Göransson
“Origin” (Neon)
Kris Bowers
“Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
Michael Giacchino

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
“Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren
“Origin” (Neon)
“I Am” by Stan Walker, Michael Fatkin, Vince Harder, Te Kanapu Anasta
“Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Better Place” by Justin Timberlake, Karl Schuster, Amy Allen
“Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“This Wish” by Julia Michaels, Benjamin Rice

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS)
Mstyslav Chernov (director, producer), Derl McCrudden, Michelle Mizner (producers)
“American Symphony” (Netflix) ***
Matthew Heineman (director, producer), Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun (producers)
“Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
Lisa Cortes (director, producer), Caryn Capotosto, Robert Friedman, Liz Yale Marsh (producers)
“The Mission” (National Geographic)
Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss (directors, producers), Jonathan Chinn, Simon Chinn, Will Cohen (producers)
“They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics))
Javier Mariscal, Fernando Trueba (directors), Cristina Huete (producer)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

“Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” from Romania (Mubi)
dir. Radu Jude
“Perfect Days” from Japan (Neon)
dir. Wim Wenders
“The Taste of Things” from France (IFC Films)
dir. Trần Anh Hùng
“The Teachers Lounge” from Germany (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. İlker Çatak
“The Zone of Interest” from United Kingdom (A24) ***
dir. Jonathan Glazer

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Animated Short

“Ashkaska” (Distributor TBD)
“Backflip” (The NEw York Times Op-Docs)
“Once Upon a Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
“Peter and the Wolf” (HBO)
“Way Better” (Distributor TBD)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>coming soon

Documentary Short

“The ABCs of Book Banning” (MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+)
“Between Earth and Sky” (POV Shorts)
“Camp Courage” (Netflix)
“Deciding Vote” (The New Yorker) ***
“The Last Repair Shop” (Searchlight Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>coming soon

Live Action Short

“The After” (Netflix)
“The Old Young Crow” (Distributor TBD)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“A Strange Way of Life” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
“Troy” (The New Yorker)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>coming soon

Film Columns and Podcast Archives

AWARDS CIRCUIT TV COLUMNS, FEATURES & EXCLUSIVES

• It’s a Fact: ‘American Fiction’ Has What It Takes to Win Best Picture

• Oscars Party Crashers: How ‘The Color Purple,’ ‘The Iron Claw’ and ‘Napoleon’ Could Affect Awards Season

• How Zac Efron, Greta Lee and More Actors With SAG-AFTRA Interim Agreements Have Oscars Advantage

• Eugenio Derbez Talks ‘Radical’ and Latin Representation in Hollywood Ahead of Receiving Variety’s Legends and Groundbreakers Award

• When Oscar Maestros Collide: How Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg Could Face Off or Share the Best Picture Win

• Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson Enter Oscars Race for Original Song With Netflix Doc ‘American Symphony’ (EXCLUSIVE)

• Lionsgate’s ‘Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret’ Submits for Comedy Categories at Golden Globes (EXCLUSIVE)

• Golden Globes Predictions: First Look at TV Races Including New Stand-Up Comedy Category With Chris Rock, Tom Segura and More in the Mix

• Are Beyoncé’s and Taylor Swift’s Concert Films Eligible for the Oscars?

• ‘Flower Moon’ Filmmakers Talk 100-Day Shoot, Script Rewrite and Leonardo DiCaprio’s Performance: ‘Truly an Acting Feat of Genius’

• SAG Awards 2024: Actors Can Submit Beginning Oct. 4, FYC Mailings and Screeners Remain Paused Until Strike Ends

• Greta Lee Discusses Initially Losing ‘Past Lives’ Role and How She Was Inspired to Pursue Acting by 1997’s ‘The Saint’: ‘Being Val Kilmer Was Freedom’

• ‘The Bikeriders’ Script to Compete for Original Screenplay Oscar, Despite Being Inspired by Danny Lyons Book (EXCLUSIVE)

• From ‘Fair Play’ to ‘Flower Moon’: Timely Tales Tackling Inequality and Fighting Corporations Will Resonate During Awards Season

• ‘Maestro’ Oscar Odds: Why Carey Mulligan Should Move to Supporting Actress and Bradley Cooper Could Follow Laurence Olivier

• ‘Barbie’ and ‘Flower Moon’ Cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto to Be Honored at GuadaLAjara Film Festival (EXCLUSIVE)

• ‘Flora and Son’ Will Submit Original Song ‘High Life’ for Oscar Consideration, Joseph Gordon-Levitt for Supporting (EXCLUSIVE)

• France Selects ‘The Taste of Things’ for Oscars’ International Feature Film Race

• From ‘Poor Things’ to ‘American Fiction,’ All the Breakout Films and Performances From Fall Fests

• Oscars: Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore to Compete in Separate Categories for ‘May December’ (EXCLUSIVE)

• Lily Gladstone Will Campaign for Lead Actress for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ and Could Make History as First Native American Nominee (EXCLUSIVE)

• Whether You Think ‘Barbie’ Is Adapted or Original, Consider These 5 Points Before Answering

• Martin Scorsese, Bradley Cooper and Greta Gerwig Among A-Listers Competing in Oscars Directing Race

• ‘Barbie’ Sets Oscar Campaign for Original Screenplay — Will the Academy Agree? (EXCLUSIVE)

• ‘Origin’ Could Make Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor the Next Halle Berry in Lead Actress, and Give the Oscars Its First Ava DuVernay in Best Director

• ‘Memory’ Offers Painful Reminder the Academy Still Owes Peter Sarsgaard an Oscar Nom: Will They Remember This Year?

• Kate Winslet Bares It All for Another Trip to the Oscars With Her Passion Project ‘Lee’ Following Its TIFF Premiere

• A24 Wants to Make ‘Dicks: The Musical’ a Best Song Contender for Megan Thee Stallion — And It Should Be

• Jeffrey Wright Is Pitch Perfect and Oscar-Worthy in Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’; Possible TIFF Audience Winner?

• ‘Dumb Money’ Is Smart Enough for the Oscars, With Standout Turns From Paul Dano, Pete Davidson and America Ferrera

• 5 Burning Questions Leading Into Awards Season: From Streamers’ Quest to Win Best Picture to ‘Oppenheimer’ Being the Oscar Frontrunner

• Sandra Hüller’s Oscar Campaigns: Supporting for ‘The Zone of Interest,’ Lead for ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ (EXCLUSIVE)

• ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘The Taste of Things’ Put Neon and IFC Back in Oscar Hunt with French Twist

• ‘Poor Things’ Could Win Emma Stone Her Second (and Third) Oscars, and First for Mark Ruffalo and Yorgos Lanthimos

• ‘All of Us Strangers’ Makes Andrew Scott an Oscar-Worthy Leading Man

• Jodie Foster Keeps ‘Nyad’ Afloat; Annette Bening’s Titular Character May be Challenging for Oscar Voters

• Jon Batiste Leads Street Band Following Telluride Screening of ‘American Symphony’ — Can He Lead a Documentary to Best Picture?

• Alexander Payne’s ‘The Holdovers’ Releases Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph Onto the Awards Scene

• Barry Keoghan’s Naked Dancing and Bathtub Slurping in ‘Saltburn’ Will Push Oscar Voters’ Limits

• Colman Domingo Becomes an Instant Best Actor Oscar Contender With Netflix’s Civil Rights Drama ‘Rustin’

• ‘The Bikeriders’ Vrooms Into the Awards Race With Austin Butler, Jodie Comer and Tom Hardy Riding Shotgun

AWARDS CIRCUIT PODCAST (FILM SEASON) ARCHIVES

• Greta Gerwig on Writing ‘Barbie’ for Ryan Gosling and Watching Kingsley Ben-Adir ‘Ascend the Throne’ in His Final Scene: ‘Get This to Whoever Is Making James Bond’

• Celine Song Explains the Heartbreaking Final Scene of ‘Past Lives’: ‘Somebody is Grieving a Part of Themselves They Never Got to Grieve’

• Eva Longoria on Hollywood’s ‘Diversity Fatigue’ and Her Fight to Direct ‘Flamin’ Hot’: ‘I Had to Overcome the Stigma of Being a Dumb Actor’

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

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• Oscars Predictions: Best Actress - Lily Gladstone's Big Week Brings Her to the Forefront for 'Killers of the Flower Moon'