2024 Oscars: Best Live Action Short Winner Predictions

The 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

One thing that should always be of note when it comes to the Shorts and Animation branch is that it probably does the best job of looking at the work before looking at the name behind it. Some Oscar winners that directed and/or produced Best Live Action Short contenders that made the 2024 Oscars shortlist, but did not get nominated include Pedro Almodóvar, Alfonso Cuarón, and Emma Thompson. If an established name wants to come for the awards most tailored to burgeoning filmmakers, they best come correct.

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That is why it is so huge that Wes Anderson received a nomination for his Netflix short “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” the cornerstone of a greater project adapting some of Roald Dahl’s most memorable short stories into short films. Because his entry into the Best Live Action Short race has not just been a one-off project, but part of a purposeful celebration of the medium — he even hosted a screening of it at Sundance alongside the short film that launched his career — Anderson does seem to be on track to win his very first Oscar in the previously unlikely category.

However, the other short that has been getting a notable push happens to be another Netflix film. “The After,” the filmmaking debut from photographer Misan Harriman, starring David Oyelowo, even had a screening hosted by Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. The Live Action Short category has a reputation for awarding films with a more maudlin tone, which applies to “The After” a lot more than “Henry Sugar.”

“Red, White, and Blue” and “Knight of Fortune” have the opposite problems, with the former abortion drama starring Brittany Snow speaking more to American audiences, and the latter, a meditation on grief produced by perennial nominee Kim Magnusson, playing more to the growing international sect of Oscar voters. Québécois short “Invincible” falls somewhere in between, but would need the greatest grassroots effort to keep up with the more recognizable names in the category.

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
“The After” 
“Red, White, and Blue”
“Knight of Fortune”

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