2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie


We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterward, final voting commences August 17 and ends the night of August 28. The 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will now take place Monday, January 15, live on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

Similar to fellow nominee Murray Bartlett, who won the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie last year for his role in “The White Lotus,” Paul Walter Hauser has been the category frontrunner this entire year for his portrayal of real life serial killer Larry Hall in “Black Bird,” with Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award wins to boot.

However, his Apple TV+ not getting an Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series nomination does take away some steam from his awards train, as it lessens the incentive for TV Academy members who have not seen “Black Bird” yet to give it a chance. The series was penned by acclaimed screenwriter and author Dennis Lehane, and features the late Ray Liotta (also nominated here,) so Hauser and his team should not be too concerned.

There is momentum for “Beef” star Young Mazino though, as the Netflix series earned 13 Emmy nominations, even though it premiered late into the eligibility window. The 31-year-old, who plays little brother to Steven Yeun’s character in the dark comedy, is one of the overall breakouts of the TV season. 

But the winners of this category often have more big roles on their resumé, with their Emmy win being in recognition of a streak of good roles as much as it is for their nominated performance (i.e. Ben Whishaw, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Evan Peters.) That element certainly works more in Hauser’s favor, as this isn’t the first awards season the “I, Tonya” and “Richard Jewell” star has participated in.

Power Rankings:

  1. Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)

  2. Young Mazino, “Beef” (Netflix)

  3. Richard Jenkins, “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)

  4. Ray Liotta, “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)

  5. Murray Bartlett, “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)

  6. Joseph Lee, “Beef” (Netflix)

  7. Jesse Plemons, “Love and Death” (Max)

Will Win: Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”
Could Win: Young Mazino, “Beef”
Should Win:
Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards here.

Last Year’s Winner: Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
Still Eligible: Yes, for a different series.
Hot Streak: In addition to Bartlett having the chance to win a second year in a row, there is also the possibility that HBO takes home the Emmy for a fourth year running.
Notable Ineligible Series: F. Murray Abraham, Michael Imperioli, Theo James, and Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus: Sicily” (submitted as a Drama Series); Lukas, Gage, Joe Keery, Lamorne Morris, David Rysdahl, Sam Spruell, and Nick Gomez, “Fargo” (Season 5 was not eligible)

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