Yahoo Movies 2022 Midterms: Every Senate, House and State Race Americans Should Follow
Morry Gash/AP/Shutterstock Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson debate
The future of the United States rests in the hands of voters, who will not only be determining which party controls Congress on Election Day, but will make consequential decisions about state leadership, too, at a time when hot-button issues are increasingly falling into the hands of government officials at the state level.
PEOPLE has been following a number of battleground races that could change domestic policy for decades to come. In the 2022 midterms, reproductive rights, religious freedom, LGBTQ+ expression and school curriculum guidelines are on the ballot — and the nation's approach to these topics could be decided by just a handful of votes.
Below are the tightest and most consequential races to keep an eye on as votes pour in on election night, complete with each race's final polling average as reported by campaign tracker FiveThirtyEight.
RELATED: PEOPLE's Complete Guide to the 2022 Midterms: Everything to Know Before Election Night
U.S. Senate
Arizona — Kelly vs. Masters
Rob Schumacher-Pool/Getty; Brandon Bell/Getty Mark Kelly, Blake Masters
Final Polling: Kelly leads by 1.5 points
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, retired astronaut and husband of former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords, was considered an at-risk senator going into the midterm elections, but when far-right Republican Blake Masters won the nomination, it seemed Kelly would be more likely to defend his seat due to Masters' polarizing nature. Until recently, he commanded a strong lead over Masters, a 36-year-old venture capitalist and longtime election denier backed by former President Donald Trump, but as Republicans gain in polls nationwide, Masters, too, has seen his chances at unseating Kelly grow.
Sen. Kelly has held the seat once occupied by Sen. John McCain since he was elected in 2020 to finish out the late Republican's term. The Democrat is pro-choice, pro-gun control and has somewhat moderate views on immigration and environmental protection. He voted to indict Trump during his impeachment trial for inciting violence that led to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
Masters, an "America first conservative," is strongly aligned with the Trump-led Republican faction, and has made a number of racist comments related to gun violence and immigration. Throughout his campaign, he has been criticized by voters and close friends for his extremist stances, and at one point scrubbed his campaign site of language that called himself "100% pro-life" and questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election in an effort to play down his controversial beliefs and appeal to mainstream Republican voters.
Georgia — Warnock vs. Walker
Prince Williams/Wireimage; Cindy Ord/Getty Raphael Warnock, Herschel Walker
Final Polling: Walker leads by 1.0 points
Rev. Sen. Raphael Warnock is a product of the "blue wave" that swept over Georgia in 2020, electing two Democratic senators and supporting Joe Biden for the presidency. Because Warnock was only elected to fill out the remainder of a former senator's term, he is already up for reelection — and Republicans hope his rookie status, coupled with Georgia's conservative voting history, will leave him vulnerable.
GOP officials weren't wrong in identifying Warnock's seat as flippable, but the party's candidate has proven less effective on the campaign trail than many Republicans hoped. Former NFL player Herschel Walker, a longtime Texas resident, returned to Georgia to challenge Warnock, relying on his former star power and endorsement from Trump to carry him over the finish line.
Over time, Walker has closed the polling gap, now pulling ever so slightly ahead of Warnock for the first time since June. While he now has a path to victory on Nov. 8, his endless stream of controversies and missteps have prevented him from becoming the total hero his party needed him to be.
One recent debacle involves Walker's right-wing social media star son, 23-year-old Christian Walker, publicly breaking ties with his father after allegations surfaced that the pro-life candidate paid for an abortion in 2009, which Walker denies. Christian accused his dad's entire campaign of being built on lies, and provided vague allegations of abuse from his childhood, writing on Twitter, "How DARE YOU LIE and act as though you're some 'moral, Christian, upright man.'"
Nevada — Cortez Masto vs. Laxalt
Anna Moneymaker/Getty; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Catherine Cortez Masto, Adam Laxalt
Final Polling: Laxalt leads by 1.4 points
Republicans are counting on Nevada to help prevent a Democratic majority in Senate, as the toss-up race appears to be one of the GOP's best shots at taking a blue seat. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is defending her position against Republican challenger Adam Laxalt.
Laxalt, who served as Nevada's attorney general from 2015 to 2019, has the name recognition needed to take on an incumbent — but even descending from a powerful political family (his grandfather and father were both U.S. senators), his far-right viewpoints proved detrimental in a previous attempt to climb the ladder when he ran for governor in 2018. The Trump ally's strategy this election is to focus on the economy. Nevadans have been hit particularly hard by inflation this year, and Laxalt hopes that associating Cortez Masto with Biden's turbulent economy will be enough to get voters on his side.
Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to U.S. Senate, wants to make crystal clear to voters that a vote for Laxalt is a vote to criminalize abortion nationwide. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, Americans across the political spectrum have flocked to the polls in support of Democrats — prioritizing reproductive rights over party preference — and the incumbent knows that her pro-choice values are her greatest asset.
The tight race between Cortez Masto and Laxalt reflects Nevada's division. For middle-of-the-road voters who are equally passionate about abortion rights and inflation, the choice is unclear.
New Hampshire — Hassan vs. Bolduc
Scott Eisen/Getty; Scott Eisen/Getty Maggie Hassan, Don Bolduc
Final Polling: Hassan leads by 2.2 points
New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan, a registered Democrat who formerly served as the state's governor, is the most bipartisan member of Senate right now — yet even in a left-leaning state, far-right challenger Don Bolduc is beginning to close in on her just ahead of the election.
Hassan has argued during her campaign that her bipartisan actions to help New Hampshirites prove her ability to work across the aisle in order to serve the state's best interests, though critics have argued that she is partially to blame for inflation and economic woes that Granite Staters face. Her main campaign focus has been aimed at defending herself from being portrayed in such a way by touting efforts to lower costs, support smalls businesses and take on Big Pharma; looking deeper at her campaign site, she also promises to fight for abortion rights and LGBTQ+ freedoms.
Whereas Hassan is a centrist, Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, stands on the outer right ledge, embracing Trump and at times arguing that the 2020 election was stolen. New Hampshire, which is known for its moderate politics, is pro-choice like Hassan, yet conservative financially, potentially explaining why Bolduc's attacks on the Democrat have resonated with voters who may otherwise not consider themselves a part of Trump's camp.
New Hampshire only elected Sen. Hassan by 1,017 votes in 2016, and it appears it'll be close again as Republicans look to secure another seat in pursuit of the Senate majority.
North Carolina — Budd vs. Beasley
Allison Joyce/Getty; Sean Rayford/Getty Ted Budd, Cheri Beasley
Final Polling: Budd leads by 4.3 points
Six years ago, Republican Sen. Richard Burr gave constituents a heads up that he would not run for reelection in 2022, giving the Republican and Democratic parties ample time to identify strong candidates to vie for his seat. Flash forward to today, and the fight to replace Burr is now one of the closest Senate races in America as North Carolinians are poised to split votes almost evenly between U.S. Rep. Ted Budd and esteemed jurist Cheri Beasley.
On the right is Budd, a Republican House representative who pushed to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election despite a lack of evidence that they were rigged. In September, he co-sponsored a House bill to ban abortions nationwide.
On the left is Beasley, former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, who has received endorsements from environmental and human rights groups. Her political stances would mark a shift in North Carolina's representation, aiming to protect women's rights and combat the climate crisis — which Burr and Budd have fought against.
Pennsylvania — Fetterman vs. Oz
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Bonnie Biess/Getty John Fetterman, Mehmet Oz
Final Polling: Oz leads by 0.5 points
One of the most talked-about Senate races in 2022 is the matchup between Pennsylvania's Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and MAGA-supporting celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. Fetterman, who had the strong advantage in the race from day one, saw his wide lead slowly shrink in recent weeks as the election drew near, with Oz officially surpassing him in polling averages for the first time on Monday night.
Fetterman's most public rebuke of Oz is that he's an outsider, a wealthy New Jerseyan trying to use Pennsylvania voters to propel him further into the spotlight. Oz's own actions have only supported Fetterman's point, as viral moment after viral moment pop up reminding Pennsylvanians of his questionable past and lack of familiarity with the Keystone State.
Oz, who nearly tied with his top Republican challenger in the GOP primary earlier this year, hopes to overcome the slew of negative press and soar on the wings of Trump's endorsement. He has made Fetterman's health a central focus of the campaign (the lieutenant governor suffered a stroke in May, days before winning the Democratic primary), which appears to have worked to some extent — despite Fetterman's insistence that he's on the road to full recovery — but hasn't been enough to give him the upper hand.
Fetterman and Oz are vying for a vacating seat currently held by a Republican, and if Fetterman holds onto his lead, he could be credited with helping Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the next term.
RELATED: The Rise and Fall of Dr. Oz
Wisconsin — Johnson vs. Barnes
STR/NurPhoto via Getty; Sara Stathas for the Washington Post/Getty Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes
Final Polling: Johnson leads by 3.3 points
Until late September, polls widely suggested that Wisconsin's Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes would unseat a prominent Trump ally, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. More recently, Johnson has taken the lead.
Barnes, only 35, has already had a successful political career, but running as a Black man in a state that is 87% white, he has been subject to attack ads that supporters are calling racist, darkening his skin tone and calling him "different" and "dangerous."
Barnes' momentum in the race was stunted when Johnson, 67, began moving the conversation away from hot-button issues like abortion and instead framing the election as a matter of keeping Wisconsinites safe, accusing Barnes of being a candidate who would allow crime to run rampant (Barnes supported the elimination of cash bonds in a move he said would keep criminals from buying their way out of jail; Republicans say it lets criminals run free).
As the incumbent, Sen. Johnson entered the race with the upper-hand, and it appears he has reclaimed it. Still, a race as close as his reinforces how split Wisconsin's values are, and may be a testament to the unpopularity of pushing 2020 election lies on behalf of Trump.
RELATED: Lawmakers Slam Sen. Ron Johnson's Racist Remarks About U.S. Capitol Riot: 'Stunning'
U.S. House of Representatives
AK-01 — Peltola vs. Palin vs. Begich
getty (3) Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, and Nick Begich III
Final Polling: It's a toss-up
Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off an upset win in Alaska's special House election in August when she defeated a pool of Republicans, including former Alaska governor and onetime vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. Rep. Peltola is the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House in 50 years.
But Peltola's win did not take her off the campaign trail; her win only secured her a few months in the House as she finishes out her predecessor's term. In November Peltola will once again face Palin, as well as Nick Begich III, the grandson of former Alaska Rep. Nick Begich Sr., who is running as a Republican despite coming from a powerful Democratic family.
August's special election was the first time Alaska tested its new ranked-choice voting system, which left some voters confused. The question now is whether conservative voters will change their ranked order votes after seeing how they benefited Peltola, or if electing her was their intention all along. If the win doesn't go to Peltola, Palin appears to be next in line, though Begich does have a fighting chance.
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MI-07 — Barrett vs. Slotkin
Senator Tom Barrett/Facebook; Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg via Getty Tom Barrett, Elissa Slotkin
Final Polling: Slotkin has a slight advantage
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin entered her second bid for reelection prepared for the fight of her career. She narrowly won in both previous elections, and facing a newly drawn district in 2022, it looked likely that GOP momentum would cut her congressional career short.
But this summer Slotkin propelled forward in the polls with tailwinds from the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, as her anti-choice challenger, Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett, became the subject of ire among proponents of reproductive rights. Now, the two are even competitors in a race that seems to slightly favor Slotkin, but is still considered a toss-up by nonpartisan election analysis site Cook Political Report.
In late October, Republican Rep. Liz Cheney endorsed Slotkin, the first time she's ever endorsed a Democrat's campaign, in hopes that it helps keep Barrett, who has denied the results of the 2020 presidential election, away from Washington.
If Democrats want a fighting chance at maintaining control of the House in November, Slotkin will need to keep her seat — the Democratic Party can only afford to lose a couple toss-up races, and Slotkin's is one they're counting on holding onto.
RELATED: 5 Battleground House Races Now Favor Democrats with Mere Weeks Until Midterms: Cook Political Report
NH-01 — Pappas vs. Leavitt
Scott Eisen/Getty; AP Photo/Charles Krupa Chris Pappas, Karoline Leavitt
Final Polling: Pappas has a slight advantage
Former Trump White House aide Karoline Leavitt, 25, hopes to unseat vulnerable Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas this year, which would make her the youngest woman elected to Congress and the first Gen Z congressperson (she'd likely share the latter title with 25-year-old Maxwell Frost, a Democratic House candidate in Florida who's heavily favored to win in the general election).
Leavitt already defeated Matt Mowers, a better-funded establishment Republican, in the September GOP primary, securing the nomination by emulating Trump's political style and more openly aligning with the former president. Supporters of Leavitt hope she will become the far-right's version of progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: young, bold and able to motivate the next generation of voters.
Pappas, the 42-year-old incumbent in the NH-01 race, is running for his third term in the House. Before that, he'd served on the New Hampshire Governor's Executive Council and in the state House of Representatives. Pappas is one of only nine openly LGBTQ+ House members, and was the first openly gay man to represent New Hampshire in Congress.
TX-34 — Flores vs. Gonzalez
LM Otero/AP/Shutterstock; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Gett Mayra Flores, Vicente Gonzalez
Final Polling: It's a toss-up
Two current House representatives are going head to head in Texas's 34th Congressional District. There's Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, an experienced congressman with a natural upper-hand in the left-leaning district, and rookie Rep. Mayra Flores, a wild-card Republican on the far-right who took control of a historically Democratic seat earlier this year in a shocking special election.
Logic would suggest that Gonzalez is the more likely winner of the race, but experts are hesitant to underestimate Flores after she pulled Hispanic voters to the right and defied the odds in June, becoming the first Mexican-born woman in Congress. Flores also holds the distinction of running as the incumbent this time around; while Gonzalez has served longer in the House, he is running in a different district than he currently serves in.
In Flores' June election, Republicans around the nation flooded her with donations that helped her slide to victory. This time around, Democrats have learned that campaign financing will be a key component of defeating Flores, allowing Gonzalez to rake in millions of dollars. His win would not only be vital for helping Democrats reclaim a seat in the House, but would ease leftists' fears that Hispanic voters in Texas are flocking to the Republican Party.
RELATED: Republican Mayra Flores Flips House Seat in South Texas to Become First Mexican-Born Congresswoman
State Elections
Arizona Governor — Hobbs vs. Lake
Ross D Franklin/AP/Shutterstock; Brandon Bell/Getty Katie Hobbs, Kari Lake
Final Polling: Lake leads by 2.4 points
The gubernatorial race between Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and former broadcast journalist Kari Lake exemplifies how two polar opposite candidates can achieve near-equal levels of popularity in the same state.
Sec. Hobbs, the Democratic nominee, elevated her career when she went on television following the 2020 presidential election to defend the legitimacy of Arizona's results, which were baselessly called fraudulent by Trump and his allies. On the other hand, Lake rallied a far-right army of supporters for pushing Trump's election lies, even when the Republican governor of Arizona said they were false. Before the primary election this year, Lake pulled a page out of Trump's book and asserted that if she didn't win the Republican nomination, it would mean the vote was rigged.
Lake has become the anti-hero of the campaign, spearheading culture wars and cosigning the stances that she knows will rile up far-right voters. Hobbs is more reserved, preaching an optimistic message of unity and growth and supporting the ever-popular charge to preserve reproductive rights, though one moment from her political past — when a Black state Senate staffer was wrongfully fired while she was the Senate minority leader — has kept some left-leaning voters from throwing their support behind her.
Hobbs has consistently stayed above Lake in the polls, until Oct. 13, when polling averages showed Lake surpass the Democrat by a fraction of a point.
Nevada Governor — Sisolak vs. Lombardo
Ethan Miller/Getty; Ethan Miller/Getty Steve Sisolak, Joe Lombardo
Final Polling: Lombardo leads by 1.9 points
With mere weeks until Election Day, Nevada's Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak has lost the smallest of leads to Republican challenger, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Sisolak's three immediate predecessors were all Republican — showing how fragile his placement as a Democrat is by nature — and current polling data supports that theory, as he's no stranger to placing within a fraction of Lombardo when voters are surveyed.
In an October debate between the candidates, Trump-backed Lombardo sought to distance himself from the scandal-ridden former president, partially agreeing with Sisolak that the 2020 presidential election was not stolen ("There was modicum of fraud, but nothing to change the election"). On other issues, though, the nominees confirmed that they are quite different from one another.
Lombardo has made clear that he is pro-life, though his campaign website suggests that Nevada voters will be the ones to decide if abortion is ever banned, not him. He also clarifies that he believes contraceptives are "an essential part of health care," a more toned-down stance than many Republican nominees in races around the nation that has undoubtedly made him more palatable to moderate voters. Sisolak has much more strongly defended reproductive freedom and believes that climate change and Nevada's wildfire and water supply challenges are directly correlated, something that Lombardo's official stances skirt around.
RELATED: Nevada Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak and Wife Threatened During Frightening Altercation at Restaurant
Oklahoma Governor — Hofmeister vs. Stitt
Sue Ogrocki/AP/Shutterstock; Dylan Hollingsworth/Bloomberg via Getty Joy Hofmeister, Kevin Stitt
Final Polling: Stitt leads by 4.9 points
Republicans weren't initially too worried about Oklahoma's Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Joy Hofmeister. In a state that's voted firmly red in presidential elections since 1968, it's always going to be an uphill battle to get a Democrat to the governor's office. That — coupled with the fact that Gov. Kevin Stitt polled an average of 16 points ahead of Hofmeister for most of the summer — made the Republican incumbent's path to reelection appear all but certain.
In recent weeks, however, the tides have dramatically changed. Hofmeister, while still the underdog in the race, recently averaged only 1 point behind Stitt in the polls after seeing a rapid spike in popularity late in the campaign. Hofmeister, who currently serves as the state's superintendent of public instruction, is by no means progressive, focusing less on hot button issues in her election and more on how she can make better use of taxpayer dollars than Gov. Stitt. She is a self-described pro-lifer, but takes the stance that it's not up to the government to make blanket decisions on abortions — perhaps the most unifying stance a person in a Republican-dominated region can take on the issue right now.
Meanwhile, Stitt has taken the campaign route of touting a strong economy in Oklahoma that could only have been achieved right now with his leadership. He argues that where Oklahoma needs to improve is not in its economy — an unusual talking point given nationwide financial strains right now — but in its quality of education, which he argues has suffered under Hofmeister's direction.
Both candidates are taking unusual risks in their campaign messaging compared to what would be expected from their respective parties, but in Hofmeister's case at least, it seems to be the kind of bold move that can revive a campaign.
Oregon Governor — Kotek vs. Drazan
AP Photo/Sara Cline; Jaime Valdez/Pamplin Media Group via AP, Pool Tina Kotek, Christine Drazan
Final Polling: Kotek leads by 3.0 points
Oregon's gubernatorial race is a monumental moment in politics, as the Democratic, Republican and independent candidates are all women; for context, the nation has never had more than nine female governors at a time, and this year, woman are sweeping the ballots in executive elections more decisively than ever before.
Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and independent Betsy Johnson are all vying for the title of Oregon governor — and though Johnson is poised to place third, she's polling in the double digits, a strong showing for a third-party candidate.
Currently, Kotek and Drazan are battling for first place. Kotek (along with Massachusetts gubernatorial frontrunner Maura Healey) could become the first openly lesbian U.S. governor if elected. Her platform hits all the expected notes for a Democratic governor in a Democratic state, which is exactly what Drazan is campaigning against.
Drazan hopes to paint her potential governorship as a necessary break from Democrats' decades-long rule and convince voters to try something new. If elected, residents who have grown accustomed to liberal state policies could see a drastic shift in how Salem handles the issues of the moment.
RELATED: The U.S. Has Never Had More than 9 Female Governors at a Time — That Can Change in November
Wisconsin — Evers vs. Michels
AP Photo/Morry Gash; AP Photo/Morry Gash Tony Evers, Tim Michels
Final Polling: Michels leads by 0.4 points
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers isn't ready to hand the Executive Residence back over to Republicans. In one of the most back-and-forth states in America, Evers likely knew that reelection would not be easy when the time came, and he's feeling that pressure now as polls show him neck-and-neck with wealthy GOP businessman Tim Michels, an Army veteran making another attempt at entering the political arena.
As with many states right now, Wisconsinites' everyday lives will be directly impacted by the outcome of the gubernatorial election. If Michels is elected, he has alluded to taking hard right stances on many hot-button issues, including school curriculum, abortion and same-sex marriage. Evers has said he will fight to protect reproductive rights and voting access — which took a recent hit by the Wisconsin Supreme Court — and bolster gun safety regulations.
In the race, Michels aims to emulate Trump's "outsider" approach to the 2016 presidential election, claiming he will "drain the swamp," but his missing track record makes him a wild card in terms of how he'll govern. Evers has already revealed his governing style, making him a safe bet — but anyone dissatisfied with Wisconsin's state of affairs may not want to keep the status quo in Madison.
Check your voter registration, locate your polling place, and make a voting plan at Vote.org to ensure that your voice is heard this election season.
