Yahoo Movies 16 factors that will impact Bengal elections
The poll bugle for West Bengal has been blown. The electoral process will be completed in five weeks, spanning across eight phases starting March 27 (Phase 1) and culminating on May 2 (Counting Day).
Early opinion polls suggest that the Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress could achieve a simple majority. However, we have observed in the past that initial polls can go wrong both in direction as well the actual seats tally.
What would determine the outcome of the Bengal elections 2021? Let’s take a look at some of the factors:
1. Leadership Ratings - Mamata versus Modi
State elections are also increasingly becoming Presidential style and leadership ratings have emerged as one of the key considerations for many voters.
Since 2014, the party whose face is the most preferred Chief Ministerial (CM) candidate in a state, normally goes on to win the elections.
Mamata is the best CM candidate for 54% of the respondents in a C-Voter survey. Dilip Ghosh and Mukul Roy combined are the choice of 33%. Didi enjoys a clear lead of 20%+.
Source: Google Trends
However, BJP has not announced a CM candidate and we have also seen that in such situations the incumbent CM gets a leg up due to the top of the mind recall.
Incumbent CMs who were leading in ratings in states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where Congress hadn’t declared a CM candidate, ended up losing in the polls.
The correct metric in such situations will be to compare the ratings of the PM and the CM in the state. Both of them have high popularity ratings making it difficult to choose one over the other.
To note, from 2014 to 2019, BJP won 9 states being in opposition having declared CM face only in 2 states Assam and Himachal. Its biggest victory in Uttar Pradesh was without a face.
2. Perception Battle
Elections are a lot about perception. Whoever wins the perception battle normally goes on to win the elections. More respondents in Bengal feel that BJP is winning (42%) than actually voting for it (38%) as per C-Voter survey.
TMC is behind in the perception battle but actually projected to win the state. This dichotomy will get corrected over the next few weeks. BJP needs to close this gap if it wishes to unseat Mamata.
3. Turnout / Voting Percentage
Bengal historically has had a higher voting percentage than the national average. A low voting is usually not good news for the opposition as it shows people are not very angry with the dispensation or not that angry that they want to throw them out. The change of governments is usually associated with higher turnout.
Source: Instagram @politicalbaaba
In 2011, when TMC dethroned the Left front government, the turnout witnessed an increase of 2.6%. In 2016, when Mamata retained Bengal, the turnout recorded was lower by 2.4%.
4. The Women Voter
Women voters account for 49% of the total electorate in Bengal. The turnout of women voters in Bengal in the 2019 general elections was higher than men. Bengal was one of the 9 states to accomplish this feat. 44% of women voters backed TMC in 2019 while only 40% backed BJP.
The gender gap among men was lower at 2% in favour of TMC. This is primarily due to the popular schemes of Kanyashree, Rupashree and Sabooj Sathi. The party also has given tickets to 50 women candidates for assembly polls.
Didi is the only woman chief minister currently in India and the party’s campaign ‘Bengal wants its own daughter’ is aimed at wooing the female voter who could play a deciding role in the elections.
5. People voting to elect CM or MLA
When people go out to vote, are more people going out to elect a CM or are more people going out to vote to elect a MLA? TMC has been in power for the last 10 years, and many of its MLAs are in their 2nd / 3rd term. It is very natural to develop some sort of anti-incumbency against them.
People might like Mamata, but they may be unhappy with MLA. Some voters may feel TMC is anyways winning as per the survey, but the local MLA needs to be taught a lesson. So they vote out the TMC nominee but wish and are confident that Mamata will come back as CM.
If this tendency spreads to many constituencies it could spell danger for TMC. Something of a similar nature happened with Shivraj in Madhya Pradesh in 2018.
6. CAA and NRC
The CAA and the NRC have emerged as a big and contentious issue in Bengal polls. Bengal has a porous border with Bangladesh and has been facing the issue of illegal migrants which is threatening to change the landscape of the state.
BJP has vowed to throw out Muslim migrants while promising citizenship to Hindu migrants who faced persecution in Bangladesh. This has charged up the political atmosphere in the state.
Source: Instagram @politicalbaaba
The level of polarization is unseen in Bengal politics. BJP has painted TMC with the minority appeasement brush. With Muslims backing Mamata there is a high probability of Hindus standing with BJP and turning the elections communal.
7. Anti-incumbency
The satisfaction level of the voters with the current dispensation will be a crucial factor. The performance track record of the TMC government on economic and socio economic factors will be judged by the people. Voters would also evaluate TMC government’s performance with other state governments in the country and also with the previous Left regime.
A ten year rule norwally gives way to natural anti-incumbency. Promises are not fulfilled, MLAs / ministers don’t perform or work for their own benefit. Development doesn’t reach all regions of the state.
The era of anti-incumbency is firmly back, as only 9 out of 36 state governments during 2014-2020 have come back to power. Can Mamata defy this trend?
To buckle anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs, TMC has denied tickets to 64 MLAs, 30% of its current strength.
8. Performance of Mahajot
The Congress-Left Front and ISF have formed an alliance. The Left Front has been decimated completely in the 2019 polls as its vote base moved to the BJP.
The Congress is a shade of its glorious past after the formation of TMC. It has a strong presence only in three minority dominated districts.
The Left Front is expected to give some seats from its quota to Muslim cleric’s party, ISF. In the 100 odd minority influenced seats, the better the Mahajot does, the bigger will be the damage to TMC prospects, unless they have an informal understanding.
The minorities accounting for 27% of the state population could vote tactically to defeat the BJP. The fight for the Muslim vote has intensified with AIMIM’s entry in a highly polarized election with TMC calling it the B-team of BJP. AIMIM had spoiled the prospects of Mahagathbandhan in a few seats in a close contest in Bihar.
In other 200 odd seats, there is likely to be a triangular contest and TMC could benefit by the split of opposition vote, similar to the benefit received by the NDA in Bihar.
9. Caste versus Class arithmetic
Mamata successfully introduced caste based politics in 2011 in a state dominated by class politics. The BJP in 2019 taking cue from Mamara somewhat succeeded in converting a class based election into a religion and caste based.
Source: Instagram @politicalbaaba
BJP made big inroads in the SC-ST, OBC and General vote bank by working on the Matuas and bhadralok. The party received more than 50% support from these blocks in 2019. The Matuas hold considerable clout in 40-45 seats.
Many poor and lower economic class voters have moved from the Left to TMC after the Singur and Nandigram incidents. The BJP through its pro poor schemes is wooing these class of voters. It has accused Mamata of not implementing central government schemes which has put Mamata on the backfoot.
10. Bengali asmita
TMC is banking on the Bengali pride factor. It has launched amra verus ora (insider versus outsider) campaign showcasing BJP as a party of Hindi speaking North Indians and Gujaratis. It has accused Modi-Shah of having no knowledge and regard for the rich culture and heritage of Bengal. It is playing up regional / sub-nationalism to counter BJP’s Hindu nationalism.
There are 15% outsiders in Bengal who could gravitate towards the BJP due to this campaign. With the ‘insider’ or local votes splitting, they could actually become the kingmakers in many constituencies.
11. Exodus of leaders from TMC
19 MLAs have left the TMC camp and joined the BJP. Some of them had the inkling that they could be denied tickets hence they jumped ship. Some might have felt that BJP is likely to win and it’s better to be on the winning side.
TMC strongman Suvendu Adhikari has joined the BJP and is likely to propel its prospects in the South Bengal region. He may face the most important battle against Mamata in Nandigram. How much Suvendu helps BJP to make inroads in South Bengal will be keenly watched?
MLAs hopping on to the BJP bandwagon before polls are not new and is a loose indicator of which way the wind is blowing. Most turncoat MLAs in Maharashtra won while in Jharkhand they lost.
12. Undecided voters
In any election, 12%-15% of the voters are undecided till the last moment. These swing voters can alter the course of any election. They normally go with the hawa.
They decide whom to back on the voting day or just 2-3 days before that on the basis of the election campaign and who’s expected to win. They normally do not wish to waste their vote.
Source: Instagram @politicalbaaba
13. The Modi factor
The boost the BJP gets from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal political capital, which took the party past the finish line in elections over the last few years, has often been referred to as the ‘Modi factor’.”
One-third of votes received by BJP is due to the Modi factor. This translates into 13%-14% vote share of the 41% received by the party in 2019 general elections. To win, BJP needs to retain these votes in the state elections as well.
PM Narendra Modi’s popularity is still intact despite the COVID-19 shock and the resultant economic hardships faced by people. It worked in Bihar where Modi charisma pulled the NDA away from the brink of loss to victory. He is slated to hold 20 rallies / road shows in the state and the party hopes the factor will work in its favour.
14. Double engine ki sarkar
The BJP will position Prime Minister Modi as the harbinger of change and development. It will push its patent double-engine theory of growth. It will promise the people of the state that Modi will make a responsible person the state chief minister.
The CM will work directly under the supervision/guardianship of the Prime Minister’s Office and implement his agenda.
After COVID-19, the dependence of people on the state has increased. Mamata’s regular confrontation with the Centre could impact the assistance received from the central government.
15. Performance of Mamata on economic front
BJP has accused Mamata of denying benefits of central schemes like PM Kisan Nidhi, Ayushman Bharat to the people of Bengal. The party has promised to transfer Rs. 18,000 to each farmer if voted to power. Fearing backlash and damage to electoral prospects, the TMC government has initiated the PM Kisan scheme recently.
On the other hand, TMC is targeting BJP for the economic hardships faced by people due to the lockdown. It has accused BJP of partisan behaviour while releasing central funds.
While BJP has attacked Mamata over lack of development and industrialisation, TMC claims unemployment in Bengal is lower than the national average.
16. Price Rise and Corruption
The TMC is raking up the issue of price rise in the state. Petrol prices are hovering around the Rs. 100/litre while LPG prices have witnessed an increase of Rs. 225/cylinder in the past few months. Kolkata has a history of riots and insurrections, protests against bus / tram fare hikes. It’s a touchy issue and may cost BJP dearly.
On the other hand, BJP is raking up the cut-money culture prevalent in Bengal. It has accused TMC top leadership and its rank and file are neck deep in corruption. Mamata herself last year had warned her party against “politicising relief work” for the pandemic / cyclone and corruption in the public distribution system.
Recently, CBI had sent notices to Abhishek Banerjee’s wife in a coal smuggling case. Abhishek is the nephew of Mamata and considered her political heir. TMC has called these charges baseless and accused BJP of using CBI as a political tool.
To sum up, a potboiler of an election is on the cards in Bengal. Will Mamata join the ranks of Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik who were successful in humbling BJP or join the long list of incumbent CMs who lost to the Modi jadoo and BJP juggernaut? Only time will tell...
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