UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures slip 1% on cooler forecasts, lower demand

(Adds latest prices) Aug 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 1% on Friday on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came even though output was on track to fall for a fourth day in a row on Friday after hitting a record high on Monday, and despite forecasts for hotter weather in late August. Also weighing on prices was the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport expects the plant to return to at least partial service in early October. Front-month gas futures fell 10.6 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $8.768 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract jumped about 8% to a high of $8.99 on news that a pipeline leak in the Gulf of Mexico caused producers to shut in several offshore oil and gas fields. Shell PLC halted production on Thursday at three U.S. Gulf of Mexico deepwater platforms after a leak shut two pipes connecting the platforms. The shutdown affected around 500,000 barrels per day of oil and 0.3 bcfd of gas supply. Shell expected pipeline service to resume on Friday. For the week, gas futures gained about 9% after sliding about 2% last week. So far this year, the front-month is up about 134%, as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. Global prices have soared this year following supply disruption and concerns of shortages linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading around $62 per mmBtu in Europe and $45 in Asia. The United States became the world's top LNG exporter during the first half of 2022. But no matter how high global gas prices rise, the United States cannot export more LNG because the country's plants are already operating at full capacity. Russian gas exports via the three main lines into Germany - Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route - averaged 2.5 bcfd so far in August, down from 2.8 bcfd in July and 10.4 bcfd in August 2021. TOP PRODUCER U.S. gas futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world's top producer with all the fuel it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints and the Freeport outage prevent the country from exporting more LNG. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had risen to 97.6 bcfd so far in August from a record 96.7 bcfd in July. On a daily basis, however, output has declined every day since hitting a record 98.3 bcfd on Monday, sliding to a preliminary 95.6 bcfd on Friday. Preliminary data is often revised. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 101.9 bcfd this week to 96.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns cooler before rising to 98.1 bcfd in two weeks as some heat returns. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has held at 10.9 bcfd so far in August, the same as July. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 12 Aug 5 Aug 12 average (Forecast) (Actual) Aug 12 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +38 +44 +46 +47 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,539 2,501 2,815 2,886 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -12.0% -11.9% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 8.66 8.87 4.03 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 61.33 62.89 15.43 16.04 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 45.34 44.71 16.36 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 1 1 1 3 5 U.S. GFS CDDs 214 214 216 198 185 U.S. GFS TDDs 215 215 217 201 191 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.0 97.6 97.2 93.8 86.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.0 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 106.1 105.5 105.4 102.1 94.6 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.4 5.4 U.S. LNG Exports 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.1 4.4 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 44.0 46.4 41.2 40.3 38.8 U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.3 21.4 21.1 21.2 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 80.4 82.8 77.5 76.4 74.9 Total U.S. Demand 99.4 101.9 96.9 95.3 87.2 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Aug 12 Aug 5 Jul 29 Jul 22 Jul 15 Wind 6 8 7 8 6 Solar 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 5 5 5 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 42 42 45 44 Coal 22 21 22 22 21 Nuclear 17 17 17 17 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 8.53 7.86 Transco Z6 New York 7.50 7.41 PG&E Citygate 9.71 9.12 Dominion South 7.36 7.19 Chicago Citygate 8.24 7.80 Algonquin Citygate 7.80 7.62 SoCal Citygate 11.70 10.33 Waha Hub 7.45 7.26 AECO 3.27 3.38 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 83.25 111.25 PJM West 89.75 104.00 Ercot North 127.00 148.25 Mid C 67.00 103.00 Palo Verde 133.00 126.00 SP-15 135.75 119.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Potter and Richard Chang)