UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures slide 2% as output rises, demand slips

(Updates prices) May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a one-week low on Friday on rising output and lowered forecasts for demand over the next two weeks. This week, U.S. power generators burned more gas for a second week in a row due to low wind power, on track to produce just 11% of U.S. power this week, down from a recent high of 16%. Gas will generate about 36%, up from a recent low of 33%, according to federal data. After last week's smaller than usual storage build, traders noted that extra gas burned by power generators will limit what utilities have available to inject into storage again this week. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for July delivery fell 16.8 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $8.727 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 20. When June was still the front-month, the contract closed at its highest since August 2008 on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the week, the front-month was up about 8% after rising about 5% last week. U.S. gas futures are up about 134% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Even with much bigger supply worries in Europe, traders noted U.S. futures were up about 16% over the past month, while European prices were down about 20% as Russia keeps sending supplies by pipeline and LNG vessels continue to deliver lots of cargoes. Gas was currently trading around $27 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. Gas stockpiles in Northwest Europe were only about 10% below the five-year norm versus about 15% below in the United States. U.S. futures, however, continue to lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world's top producer with all the gas it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints inhibit additional LNG exports. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has climbed to 95.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April, off the monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 88.5 bcfd for through to mid-June, lower than Refinitiv forecast on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.5 bcfd so far in May from 12.2 bcfd in April. It hit a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.6 bcfd of gas into LNG. Since the United States will not be able to produce much more LNG soon, it worked with allies to divert exports from elsewhere to Europe to help European Union countries and others break dependence on Russian gas after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia exported around 7.4 bcfd of gas to Europe on Thursday, the same as Wednesday, on the three mainlines into Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That compares with an average of 11.9 bcfd in May 2021. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year May 27 May 20 May 27 average (Forecast) (Actual) May 27 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +91 +80 +100 +100 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,903 1,812 2,299 2,239 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -15.0% -15.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 8.62 8.90 2.96 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 26.65 27.00 8.88 16.04 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 22.49 22.22 9.65 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 22 22 34 31 31 U.S. GFS CDDs 137 130 90 98 120 U.S. GFS TDDs 159 152 124 129 151 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 95.1 95.1 94.8 92.5 83.9 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.6 7.3 7.7 7.3 7.6 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 102.7 102.4 102.6 99.8 92.6 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.1 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.8 U.S. LNG Exports 12.2 13.0 13.1 10.5 5.1 U.S. Commercial 5.0 5.1 4.6 5.0 5.6 U.S. Residential 4.8 4.9 4.1 4.8 6.7 U.S. Power Plant 31.4 29.6 30.7 27.6 26.0 U.S. Industrial 20.7 20.9 20.6 21.4 20.9 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 68.5 67.0 66.6 65.4 65.7 Total U.S. Demand 89.6 88.6 88.5 84.2 77.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended May 27 May 20 May 13 May 6 Apr 29 Wind 11 12 15 13 16 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 8 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 36 37 34 36 33 Coal 20 20 18 19 19 Nuclear 20 19 19 20 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 9.19 9.44 Transco Z6 New York 8.13 8.23 PG&E Citygate 10.24 10.41 Dominion South 7.91 8.20 Chicago Citygate 8.63 8.89 Algonquin Citygate 8.10 9.20 SoCal Citygate 9.75 10.06 Waha Hub 8.51 8.74 AECO 6.07 6.11 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 93.00 83.75 PJM West 84.50 84.50 Ercot North 93.75 85.50 Mid C 79.67 79.67 Palo Verde 90.00 90.00 SP-15 86.00 86.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans and David Gregorio)