* = 2011 winner
COMEDY SERIES
The Nominees: *Modern Family (ABC), The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Girls (HBO), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Veep (HBO), 30 Rock (NBC)
HBO has never won this category, so if any of its three contenders wins, it will be huge, namely Girls. A BBT win would also be a huge upset.
DRAMA SERIES
*Mad Men (AMC), Boardwalk Empire (HBO), Game of Thrones (HBO), Downton Abbey (PBS), Breaking Bad (AMC), Homeland (Showtime)
If Mad Men wins, it will be the first show in history to win 5 consecutive series trophies. If Homeland wins, it will be the network’s first ever Emmy for an original series- comedy OR drama. The biggest upsets would be Breaking Bad, Thrones or Boardwalk.
REALITY COMPETITION
*The Amazing Race (CBS), Dancing With the Stars (ABC), The Voice (NBC), Project Runway (Lifetime), So You Think… Dance (Fox), Top Chef (Bravo)
With the exception of 2010’s win for Top Chef, Race has always won this category. Any other show winning here would be an upset, especially if The Voice wins.
MINISERIES-MOVIE
American Horror Story (FX), Hatfields & McCoys (History), Game Change (HBO), Hemingway & Gelhorn (HBO), Luther (BBC America), Sherlock (Masterpiece)
HBO dominates this category every year. It’s definitely Horror Story vs. Hatfields for the upset over Game Change. FX has never had a minis/movies entry, nor has History ever had a scripted entry in contention in any category.
VARIETY SERIES
*The Daily Show (Comedy Central), Colbert Report (Comedy Central), Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC), Saturday Night Live (NBC), Jimmy Fallon (NBC), Real Time/Bill Maher (HBO)
It goes without saying, any show that beats Daily Show is making history here. Colbert has never won the series trophy here, nor Maher, Fallon or Kimmel.
ACTORS
Lead Actor/Comedy
*Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory; Louis C.K., Louie; Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Don Cheadle, House of Lies
This category is wide open for a spoiler. Parsons has won two years in a row. Cryer is competing for the first time as a lead actor. Don Cheadle is the first black actor to compete here since Bernie Mac. Anyone who isn’t Parsons is making news.
Supporting Actor/Comedy
*Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Ed O’Neil, Modern Family; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family; Max Greenfield, New Girl; Bill Hader, SNL
Any non-Modern Family actor winning here is huge, especially Bill Hader. An SNL actor has never won here. But I think Greenfield has the best chance.
Lead Actor/Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Damian Lewis, Homeland; Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
This category is the most unpredictable. Last year’s winner Kyle Chandler is gone; Cranston is back after a hiatus. A win for Lewis or Bonneville would be most meaningful. If Hamm wins, he will be the first Mad Men actor to ever win.
Supporting Actor/Drama
*Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad; Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad; Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey; Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Jared Harris, Mad Men
The biggest match-up here is between Paul and Esposito. But Esposito and Harris both died on their series, so it’s their last chance to win. If Harris wins (this award will likely be toward the top of the show), he will be first Mad Men actor to win an Emmy.
Lead Actor/Minis-Movie
Woody Harrelson, Game Change; Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys; Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys; Clive Owen, Hemingway; Idris Elba, Luther; Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
This is Harrelson’s to lose and Costner’s to spoil. This would be Costner’s first ever Emmy (his first ever major TV role, to boot) and if a Hatfields actor wins, it will be him.
Supporting Actor/Minis-Movie
Denis O’Hare, Horror Story; Ed Harris, Game Change; Tom Berenger, Hatfields; David Straitharn, Hemingway; Martin Freeman, Sherlock
No major expected winner here, but if Harris wins, could signal a Game Change sweep.
ACTRESSES
Lead Actress/Comedy
*Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation; Lena Dunham, Girls; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep; Tina Fey, 30 Rock
McCarthy’s win last year was a fluke; Julia L.D. is the expected winner; a Zooey win would be a huge victory since New Girl isn’t nominated. Similarly, a Dunham win would be huge as HBO has never had a comedy actress win.
Supporting Actress/Comedy
*Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Kristen Wiig, SNL; Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory; Merritt Weaver, Nurse Jackie; Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
It’s Sofia’s turn, so if anyone else wins here, that’s a huge upset. A posthumous win for Joosten would be a huge spoiler.
Lead Actress/Drama
*Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Michelle Dockery, D. Abbey; Glenn Close, Damages; Claire Danes, Homeland; Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
If Danes doesn’t win, that will be the shock of the night.
Supporting Actress/Drama
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Archie Panjabi, Good Wife; Christine Baranski, Good Wife; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
It’s Gunn vs. Hendricks, with the latter definitely the favorite. If Downton actresses spoil that’s huge. Smith won here last year, but that’s when Downton was in the minis/movies category.
Lead Actress/Minis-Movie
Connie Britton, Horror Story; Nicole Kidman, Hemingway; Ashley Judd, Missing; Emma Thompson, Song of Lunch; Julianne Moore, Game Change
It’s an HBO movie actress showdown between Kidman and Moore (remember Winslet won here last year), with Moore definitely the frontrunner. Anyone else is a spoiler.
Supporting Actress/Minis-Movie
Frances Conroy, Horror Story; Jessica Lange, Horror Story; Sarah Paulson, Game Change; Mare Winningham, Hatfields & McCoys; Judy Davis, Page Eight
Lange is a clear frontrunner. Anyone else is a spoiler.
