Future Oscar contenders appearing at TIFF? We make our predictions

The Toronto International Film Festival is widely regarded as the unofficial kickoff to Oscar season. TIFF is where the major studios roll out their big prestige projects and character pieces in order to build buzz and critical chatter for the holidays.

As an event that attracts both the film industry and the general public, TIFF has been an excellent bellwether for future award season success, and the 2013 edition of the festival is no different. Here are our Oscar predictions for films, filmmakers, and actors appearing at TIFF 2013.

Best Picture

Let’s get the big one out of the way right off the bat: The Best Picture category at the Oscars is the be-all-and-end-all of movie awards. Numerous TIFF movies have won the coveted award in the past (films like “American Beauty,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” and “The King's Speech”), so there’s already a strong Toronto-Oscar correlation.

Many factors determine the Best Picture nominees, but it mostly boils down to strength of concept, cast, execution, and, perhaps most importantly, reception. Academy voters are a sentimental lot who will pick a crowd pleasing movie over a technically superior film any day. And that’s good news if you’re looking to TIFF for Oscar hints, as it’s a film festival that has built itself upon crowd pleasers over the past four decades.

How a film is received at TIFF can go on to inform its reception upon release. There are five films at TIFF 2013 that already seem like solid Best Picture contenders – A strong Toronto showing will make them sure bets.

Steve McQueen’s brutal slavery drama “12 Years a Slave,” starring Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Sarah Paulson, Paul Dano, and Brad Pitt, leads the pack.

Alfonso Cuarón’s harrowing space survival thriller “Gravity,” starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, also seems like a shoo-in.

“Rush,” director Ron Howard’s film about the rivalry between legendary Formula 1 drivers James Hunt (Chris Hemsworth) and Niki Lauda (Daniel Brühl), looks poised to propel the director back into the Academy’s good graces after a few rough years.

And lastly, based almost solely on the strength of its ridiculously star-studded cast (Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ewan McGregor, etc.), John Wells’ ensemble family drama “August: Osage County” also seems a likely Best Picture nominee.

Bill Condon’s Wikileaks drama “The Fifth Estate” could also be in the Best Picture mix, but it’s a film that will probably do better in the acting categories.

Best Director

With critically-acclaimed films like “Hunger” and “Shame” to his name -- but not much in the way of commercial success or Academy recognition -- TIFF favourite Steve McQueen seems destined to make his long overdue Oscar breakthrough this year with “12 Years a Slave.” However, McQueen will have some stiff competition this year from another filmmaker appearing at TIFF: “Gravity” director Alfonso Cuarón. Much like McQueen, Cuarón is beloved by critics but has never really garnered the kind of awards season recognition many believe he deserved. A three-time Oscar nominee in the editing and screenplay categories, Cuarón’s technical wizardry in “Gravity” is likely to power him to Best Director liftoff.

Other likely Best Director contenders appearing at TIFF include Ron Howard (“Rush”) and John Wells (“August: Osage County”), but the pair are most definitely underdogs if McQueen and Cuarón are in the running. Depending on how well “Labor Day” and “Dallas Buyers Club” go over at TIFF, Canadians Jason Reitman and Jean-Marc Vallée could also be in Best Director play. Reitman is a two-time nominee in this category (for “Juno” and “Up in the Air”), and Vallée is also no stranger to the Academy. His film “C.R.A.Z.Y.” was Canada's submission for the 2005 Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, while his Hollywood debut “The Young Victoria” earned multiple Oscar nominations.

Best Actor

Of all the potential Best Actor nominees on this list, “12 Years a Slave” star Chiwetel Ejiofor seems about as close to a sure thing as you could get. His role as a free man kidnapped and sold into slavery is the kind of part that actors dream of and exactly the sort part that Academy voters love. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s backed up by one of the strongest ensemble casts in recent memory.

Benedict Cumberbatch is the talk of TIFF 2013 thanks to three movies at the fest, and it’s one of those roles – as egomaniacal info-warrior Julian Assange in “The Fifth Estate – that is almost certain to lead him to a Best Actor nomination early next year. He may even pick up a Best Supporting Actor nod for “12 Years a Slave” or “August: Osage County.”

Other Best Actor contenders at the festival this year include Hugh Jackman (for his intense turn as a vengeful father in Denis Villeneuve’s “Prisoners”), Idris Elba (for his role as South African revolutionary and politician Nelson Mandela in “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”), and Matthew McConaughey (for his body-transforming performance in Jean-Marc Vallée’s AIDS drama “Dallas Buyers Club").

Best Actress

As far as what TIFF 2013 has on offer, the potential Best Actress Oscar nominees are not yet as clear cut as some of the other categories. The two likeliest nominees appearing at TIFF this year are Sandra Bullock (for her zero-G performance as marooned astronaut Dr. Ryan Stone in "Gravity") and Meryl Streep (for her turn as the chain-smoking matriarch of a dysfunctional Oklahoma family in "August: Osage County"). A nomination for "August" would be Streep's incredible 18th Oscar nomination.

Dame Judi Dench also has Oscar watchers talking for her role as an Irish-Catholic mother searching for her long lost son in Stephen Frears' "Philomena." "Blue is the Warmest Colour" star Adèle Exarchopoulos may also be in the running for the award based on her performance in the Cannes Palme d'Or winner, but it's very possible that stuffy Oscar voters will be turned off by the film's very graphic sex scenes.

Supporting Roles

Not to be forgotten are the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories. TIFF is full of films with strong-but-small performances that will likely make an impression on Oscar voters in the coming months.

As mentioned previously, Benedict Cumberbatch could snag a Best Supporting Actor nomination for either “12 Years a Slave” or “August: Osage County." His "Fifth Estate" co-star Daniel Brühl is already getting a lot of Oscar talk for performance as Formula 1 driver Niki Lauda in Ron Howard's "Rush" but might pick up in the same category for the Wikileaks drama. Jared Leto has also been on the receiving end of a lot of Oscar talk for his turn as an HIV-positive transgender woman in "Dallas Buyers Club."

On the Best Supporting Actress side there are several standouts that have already been the subject of award season chatter. “12 Years a Slave” co-star Lupita Nyong'o is earning a lot of praise out of Telluride for her performance. Jennifer Garner is getting positive early talk for her turn as Dr. Eva Saks in "Dallas Buyers Club," a physician who helps HIV patients acquire alternative medicines. "Skyfall" actress Naomie Harris has also popped on the Oscar radar for her turn as Winnie Madikizela-Mandela in "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom."

There are sure to be plenty of other Oscar nominees not listed above – after all, not every potential contender even plays at TIFF. However, the sheer volume of Academy Award potential speaks very highly of the festival's 2013 line-up. If you take in any of the previously mentioned movies at TIFF this year, the chances are very high you'll be watching a potential Oscar nominee.

The Toronto International Film Festival runs from Sept. 5 to 15.